Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 9N26W TO
2N28W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
IN CONTRAST A DRY AIRMASS IS FURTHER N OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO
9N66W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
6N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-89W MOVING W. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF N OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 96W-99W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA S OF 27N MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER SE LOUISIANA
AND S MISSISSIPPI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. A KOL AREA IS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A LARGE BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST
W OF 78W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N66W TO 22N70 WITH AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW AT 26N68W. A LARGE
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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