917
AXNT20 KNHC 112206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along
23W, from 05N to 21N nearing the Cabo Verde Islands, moving
westward around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A nearly stationary tropical wave is analyzed in the Atlantic
Ocean near 38.5W, from 05N to 19N, moving west at around 5-10 kt.
Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section
below.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean along 65W,
from near the Virgin Islands southward to Venezuela. Scattered
showers are in the eastern Caribbean enhanced by the wave, with
thunderstorms over portions of Venezuela.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean near 80.5W, from
near the Cayman Islands southward to near the Azuero Peninsula,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of
Mauritania and the Senegal, continuing west-southwestward to just
south of the Cabo Verde Islands to 1014 mb low pressure near
10.5N38W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to the coast of
South America at the border of Guyana and Venezuela near 08N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 20W
and 25W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 23W and 36W, and from 10N to
12N between 39W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1020 mb high pressure is centered in the eastern Gulf waters near
28N87W. The diurnal surface trough is analyzed in the western Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in the NW basin
due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the high and
lower pressures near western Texas where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are elsewhere in the Gulf,
with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere west of 93W and 3 ft or less east
of 93W.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the basin through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. A
surface trough is expected to develop across Florida by Mon and
drift westward into the eastern Gulf on Tue, accompanied by active
weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Outside of the TROPICAL WAVES, the pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over
Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean,
moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate in the western Caribbean. As a result of these winds,
seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean, 5 to 6 ft elsewhere,
except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing
fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are
expected across the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early
next week. These winds are expected to reach strong speeds Sun
night, and again Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend
while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

The subtropical Atlantic high pressure dominates the weather
conditions across the basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds are found
between the Bahamas and Cuba, fresh to strong off the coast of
northern Hispaniola. Winds are moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 25W. Winds are moderate to fresh
east of 25W, except locally strong near the coast of Africa. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft north of 25N between 30W and 70W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft
in NE swell south of 20N and west of 35W, and mainly 3 to 6 ft
across the remainder of waters, except 5 to 8 ft near the coast of
Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High extends a
ridge toward the Bahamas and Florida. This system will gradually
shift eastward and weaken through the upcoming weekend. The
related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds,
except for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds off the
northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat. Winds and seas will
diminish Sun through early Mon, then increase modestly Tue.

$$
Lewitsky