Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221017

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


Hurricane Maria centered near 21.6N 70.6W at 22/0900 UTC, or
about 30 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center. Maria`s eye will move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 68.7W at
22/0900 UTC, or about 105 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and
stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs,
however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of
Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the
coast of New England for the next several days. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.


A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this morning.
Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region of low
vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and dust are
in the northern and central wave environment, thus supporting lack
of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N
between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms
are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.



High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the
northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W
and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche
where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S Mexico. No
major changes expected during the next two days.


The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished
mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the
SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean
while light and variable flow is elsewhere.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are
centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of the
remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W and
51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the
next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

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