Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 211038

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N45W to 09N47W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded
in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct
surface and 700 mb troughs. Isolated convection is within 240 nm
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 78W, moving W
at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on
SSMI Imagery. There is a well defined surface trough, and a
broad 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 14N-20N between 75W-83W.

A tropical wave is in the Gulf of Honduras along 86W, moving W
at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on
SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs.
Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 86W-89W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N
between 32W-39W.



High pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a surface ridge into
the NE Gulf of Mexico. Diffluence E of an upper level trough
over Texas is enhancing scattered showers across the central
Gulf between 86W-93W. An upper level ridge is over the E Gulf
with axis along 82W. Strong subsidence is over north and central
Florida. Expect moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds over the
Gulf today as the surface ridge remains in place.


In addition to the two tropical waves mentioned above, the
eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama producing isolated convection. A large upper
level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N81W with
abundant moisture. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E
of 72W, including Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Expect fair
weather to persist in Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands today.


With a tropical wave west of the area, fair weather is expected
over Hispaniola today. Fresh to strong trades are expected this
weekend as high pressure builds in N of the region. Scattered
showers are possible in the afternoon and evening hours.


A weakening cold front extends over the west-central Atlantic
from 32N55W to 27N65W, then stationary to 26N75W. Scattered
showers are within 200 nm NW of the front. Strong high pressure
is centered over the Azores, and high pressure extends into the
Atlc to around 68W off the the U.S. coast west of the front. An
upper level low centered in the central Atlc near 22N42W is
producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center due to
upper level diffluence.

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