Tropical Weather Discussion
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591
AXNT20 KNHC 291118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 36-hour forecast consists of a cold front whose position will
be 30N92W 23N96W 19N96W. Expect NW-to-N gale force winds, and sea
heights ranging less than 8 feet, within the area that is bounded
by 19N95W to 19N96W to 21N97W to 23N98W to 23N96W to 22N95W to
19N95W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico.
Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W to 08N15W. The ITCZ curves from 08N15W to
05N20W, 03N30W, 02N40W, and 02N47W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 03N to 05N between 12W and 15W. scattered to
numerous strong from 04N to 07N between 15W and 17W. scattered
moderate to strong from 05N southward between 33W and 47W, and
from 07N southward between 54W and 56W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 86W/87W. High level moisture is
covering much of the Gulf of Mexico, except for some parts of the
NW corner.

A surface ridge is along 30N, from 74W in the Atlantic Ocean,
into the eastern sections of Texas.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, with areas of 1 to 3 miles at many of the platform
sites, and some smaller areas of 3 to 5 miles.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: areas of mist/drizzle, and haze, and 3 to 5 miles in the
coastal plains. LOUISIANA: mist and 3 to 5 miles in Port Fourchon,
in the coastal plains. ALABAMA: mist and 3 to 5 miles, in Fort
Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. drizzle in Mary
Esther. Mist and 1 to 3 miles in Tallahassee.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving through much of the Caribbean
Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N southward
from 71W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
14N southward from 80W eastward.

Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 10N between
76W and 79W, in the border areas of Colombia and Panama, and in
the coastal waters in the Caribbean Sea and in eastern Pacific
Ocean. This precipitation is occurring in an area of upper level
diffluent wind flow.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 20N
between 60W and 73W, around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.76 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

The southernmost part of a middle level-to-upper level trough is
spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the island. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible, inland and in the
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.
Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. earlier nearby rainshowers
have ended for the moment. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago:
MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a trough will be
moving across the area during the next 6 hours to 12 hours. NW
wind flow will move across the area during the rest of the 48-
hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that broad cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that more
than one inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during the
next 48 hours. Expect periods of broad cyclonic wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough is along 29N74W, to the
northern coast of Haiti. Convective precipitation: Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from 15N to
26N between 60W and 76W, around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and in
the waters to the north of the Greater Antilles and to the east
of the Bahamas.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N51W, to
24N55W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
16N northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N14W to 22N29W and 16N34W.
A cold front passes through 32N09W to 29N20W, to a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N24W. A cold front continues from
the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 22N27W and 20N36W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 31N
northward between 10W and 15W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 17N northward between Africa and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 40W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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