Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. Its axis
extends from 13N17W to 04N18W. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, however intrusion of Saharan dry air and
dust limit convection to scattered showers and tstms from 03N to
13N E of 21W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N27W
to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate moist
environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and
is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting
scattered showers from 02N-10N between 22W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N43W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear.
However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep
convection at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
18N66W to inland Venezuela near 08N67W, moving W at 20 kt within
the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind
shear and is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of
dry air according to CIRA LPW. Isolated showers are between 63W
and 71W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W, moving west at 20
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral
to favorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment
with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Numerous heavy showers
and tstms are in the SW Caribbean W of 80W, but mainly associated
with the EPAC monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 08N19W and
continues to 07N33W to 07N43W to 05N52W. For convection
information see the tropical waves section. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers are from 05N to 03S between 35W and 43W and within
120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern USA extends
S to a base over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thus supporting a
cold front extending across northern Florida to 29N85W where it
transitions to a stationary that continues westward towards the
coast of Texas near 28N96W. This frontal boundary is supporting
isolated showers and tstms along the northern coastal waters of
the Gulf. A middle level low over the SW Gulf reflects as a
surface trough along 24N92W to 18N94W, which along with upper
level diffluence continue to support heavy showers and tstms over
the W Gulf S of 27N, including the Bay of Campeche where
convection is stronger and with possible gusty winds near the area
of Veracruz. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already
discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective
activity associated with it, latest scatterometer data continue
to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of
17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and
83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage
and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC
waters within 18 hours while the easternmost wave races towards
the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean
waters tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level southerly winds continue to advect moisture to
Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness with possible isolated
showers. Heavy showers and tstms are expected to develop across
the Island today as a tropical wave moves across the central
Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos


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