Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING HAS RESUMED FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS AND PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W SW TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S26W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
02N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03S TO 01N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND FROM 07S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W
AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN...RESULTING IN
THE SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ADVECTION
FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 28N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER
THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM
25 TO 30 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
30N61W TO 29N74W THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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