Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front is forecast has entered the northwest Gulf.
Winds are expected to increase to 30-40 kt after sunrise today
with seas building to 11 ft. By Sunday afternoon, northwest winds
of 30-40 KT spread over the northern half of the Gulf with seas
building to 16 ft. By late Sunday, the broad fetch of gale-force
winds builds seas to 19 ft. For more information, please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

The same cold front noted above will sweep eastward into the
southwest Atlantic with southwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt
north of 31N west of 77W by this evening and seas building to 13
ft. These conditions will prevail through the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 01N23W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 00N31W to 00N44W.
Isolated showers prevail within 200 nm on either side of these
boundaries between 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across most of the basin at this time. A
deepening low pressure is centered over southern Oklahoma
extending a cold front that reaches the northwest Gulf waters and
northeast Mexico. This system will continue moving eastward with
the front extending across the basin during the next 24 hours.
Gale-force winds will develop in the proximity of the front
affecting mainly the northern half of the Gulf. Please refer to
the section above for more details. At this time, scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin
except west of the front where fresh to strong northerly winds
prevail north of 26N and west of 93W. Expect for the front to
sweep rapidly east and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Conditions will
improve gradually from west to east by early next week as a
surface ridge builds in the wake of the front.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1016 mb surface high is centered to the north of Hispaniola and
extends across the basin. To the east, the tail end of a
dissipating stationary front extends over the Virgin Islands and
southeast Puerto Rico with isolated showers. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except west of
80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the pressure gradient to increase
across the west Caribbean as a cold front approaches. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Northwesterly winds and dry air in subsidence prevails over
island at this time. Hispaniola. These conditions will prevail
through the next 24 to 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered
near 26N69W. To the east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold
front extending from 32N42W to a 1014 mb low centered near 24N51W
to 27N48W, then as a weakening stationary front from that point
to 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm
on either side of the cold front between 39W-48W. A surface ridge
prevails across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb
stationary high centered near 33N25W. Expect for the surface low
and weakening front to dissipate within the next 24 hours. The
cold front will continue moving east with convection. A new cold
front will enter our area of discussion in the western Atlantic
by this evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the west
Atlantic as this front moves through. Please refer to the section
above for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA



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