Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 261753

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean
tonight through Monday as a high pressure builds over the
southwest Atlantic. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the
northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions possible
during the overnight and early morning hours Monday through
Thursday. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of
Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N34W to
the coast of South America at 02S43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-
08N between 07W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 03S-03N between 26W-40W, and from 01N-05N between 42W-52W.



A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida at 24N80W to W
Cuba at 23N82W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front.
A 1026 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W producing
10-20 kt anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather
is over most of the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is
over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over
most of the Gulf over the next 24 hours. Morning fog and
scattered showers are possible along the coasts of Texas and


10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. A surface trough is over
the NW Caribbean from 20N81W to 15N86W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough to include over the Cayman Islands.
Radar imagery shows isolated showers near Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels,
upper level ridging is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W.
Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central
America. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface trough to
move W to the Yucatan Peninsula with showers. Gale-force winds
are expected to develop across the south-central Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details.


Presently mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Water vapor
imagery also indicates very dry air/strong subsidence over the
entire island. Scattered showers are possible in 24 hours over E
Hispaniola within the low level tradewind flow.


A weak cold front is over the west Atlantic from 31N73W to to
the N Bahamas at 27N78W to the Straits of Florida at 24N80W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A dissipating
stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to
27N47W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. In the
upper levels, the base of a broad trough is over the W Atlantic.
A large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of
50W. Expect over the next 24 hour for the W Atlantic front to
move E with showers. Expect the central Atlantic front to also
move E, and dissipate to a surface trough.

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