Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 29.7N 71.5W AT 27/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 380 NM WSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 70W-73W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-34N BETWEEN 65W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 23N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 12W-22W AND
A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 22N32W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
LAYER NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 12N-
14N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N52W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
45W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 18N63W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N22W TO 14N35W TO 14N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 13N47W TO 09N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF NEAR 24N89W THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL
STABILITY AT THE SURFACE...THE STABILITY IS COMPROMISED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO
24N88W TO 27N92W TO 28N96W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY EARLY FRIDAY...ANY AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DRIFT INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH S-SE FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
GENERALLY W OF 70W WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BETWEEN 70W-82W AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED
TSTMS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LARGELY OCCURRING
TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. FINALLY...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDS FROM SAINT KITTS TO TRINIDAD PROVIDING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS N OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-69W.

...HISPANIOLA...
WITH THE ISLAND INFLUENCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ISLAND. CONDITIONS
ARE VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO BE
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 34N66W IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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