Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW North Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will come off the
coast of NE Florida tonight into early Mon. The front will reach
from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Mon
evening. Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the NE
Florida offshore waters Mon night and seas will build to 12 ft. The
front will continue to slide eastward and weaken NE of Hispaniola
Tue evening before exiting the region on Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Sierra Leone near
07N12W then runs southwestward to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from
04N16W to01S30W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05S to 04N between 10W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crosses northern Florida into the Big Bend offshore
waters where it stalls and contiues westward to Houston, Texas.
Heavy showers and tstms in the vicinity of the tail of the front
have moved into the NW Gulf. Strong to gusty winds and rough seas
are likely ongoing with this area of convection that will move
towards Louisiana adjacent waters later today. Weak high pressure
is over the far eastern Gulf while generally lower pressure is W
of 90W. The associated pressure gradient between these regions
supports gentle to moderate SE winds S of 28N and slight seas.
Light density smoke originating from widespread fire activity
mixed in with volcanic emissions in Mexico covers most of the
basin, however medium density smoke is over the adjacent waters
from Tampico to Veracruz with visibility 5 nm or less. In
addition, oil platforms have been reporting dense fog in the NW
offshore waters with similar visibility.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the E basin will
dissipate today. The cold front will move NE of the basin today
ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge to the NW Gulf
this evening. The front will extend from the Big Bend to Tampico
on Mon morning and exit the basin early on Tue. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight
through Tue morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The associated pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the
region and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh
to strong winds over the eastern and central basin with the
strongest winds happening over the south-central and southeast
Caribbean. Seas in these regions are 5-7 ft, except for 8 to 10 ft
off Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the NW
Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where winds are light to
gentle. Seas in the NW basin are slight to moderate.

For the forecast, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern
Atlantic through this evening and then remain stationary before
lifting N of the area Mon evening. The lingering ridge to the W
will support fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Tue being the strongest winds in the central and
southern portions of these regions. Afterward, winds will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and prevail through the
remainder forecast period, except for strong winds developing at
night off Colombia. Fresh trade winds will pulse to strong speeds
across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Otherwise, a cold front
will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue then briefly stall over
eastern Hispaniola Tue night before lifting NE of the area Wed
evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The entire subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N37W.
East of the high center to the coast of W Africa, winds are gentle
to moderate from the NE with rough 8-9 ft seas. Over the SW
Atlantic waters, trades are gentle to moderate in the Greater
Antilles adjacent waters as well as N of 28N due to the passage of
a cold front N of the area. In the tropical Atlantic, winds are
fresh to locally strong from the NE and rough seas peak at 10 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern
Atlantic through this evening and then remain stationary before
lifting N of the area Mon evening. A broad associated ridge will
persist westward across the area through Mon. A cold front will
enter the offshore waters of NE Florida Mon morning, reach from
near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then
weaken as it reaches from near 31N58W to NE Hispaniola by early on
Wed. Fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front are
forecast to reach gale-force Mon night into Tue evening, affecting
the waters N of 25N also with rough to very rough seas. The front
will move E of the area on Thu and surface ridging will build in
its wake.

$$
Ramos


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