Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that emerged to the west of Africa yesterday has
an axis extending from 09N20W to 00N21W. The wave is moving W at
10-15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low wind shear. TPW
imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer
moisture. Despite this there is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from
11N47W to 03N50W. The wave is moving W 20 to 25 kt. The wave is
located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows the
wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11n
between 46W and 50W.

A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from
14N52W to 04N56W. The wave is moving W at 15 kt. Strong wind shear
and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave is inhibiting convection.

A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis
extending from 15N81W across Panama to EPAC waters near 03N80W.
The wave is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave is
situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong
vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in
the vicinity of this wave.

A tropical wave is moving into SE Mexico from the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala. The wave axis extends from 21N89W into
the NE Pacific at 13N92W. The wave has moved W at 15 kt during the
last 24 hours. Numerous showers and scattered tstms associated
with this wave are located inland over Guatemala from 15N to 18N
between 89W and 92W. The wave will complete its move into EPAC
waters today.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea in W
Africa near 12N16W and continues to 06N18W to 06N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N23W to 04N30W to 07N39W to 07N44W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 07N
between 25W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf.
This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough
extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A stalling
and weakening frontal boundary crosses the SE Gulf from the
Florida Keys to the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. The front is
expected to dissipate by Friday evening. Strong subsidence over
the gulf is putting the damper on any significant convection over
the Gulf and in the vicinity of the front. Weak high pressure has
moved over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted in the
vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow has
already developed over the Western Gulf. Similar conditions are
expected to continue over the gulf through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. See the
tropical waves section for more details on this system. A
weakening frontal boundary is located just NW of the basin from W
Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is not expected to
provide the focus for any significant convection. Otherwise, high
pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds
across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds
along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over
the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds
are lighter in the vicinity of lower pressure over the Eastern
Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds will persist over the central
Caribbean through Friday, then diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh
to strong E to SE winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry and hazy conditions will prevail across the island
under the influence of the ridge to the NE. Model guidance
continues to show limited moisture across the region through
Saturday evening as upper-level convergence associated with a
ridge extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near
32N74W. The front extends SW to the Florida Keys and northern tip
of the Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
found just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 60 nm ahead
of the front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of
the front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh
to strong N of 27N. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W
currently dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and
central Atlantic. A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE
forecast waters from 32N17W to 26N26W to 26N33W to 23N43W. This
front will continue to weaken and dissipate by Saturday evening.
Three tropical waves are located over the Atlc between 20W and
56W. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy


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