Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 23N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
74W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N30W
TO 13N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N42W TO 09N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO
06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-87W...INCLUDING NW
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE LARGELY TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 79W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 29N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 54W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 29N38W. THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N40W INTO
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N42W THEN SW TO 25N45W TO 21N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
50W-58W TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.