Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1200 UTC IS IN THE
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.4N 92.4W.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 104 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 97W/98W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPILLING INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 20N TO CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N33W 8N35W 3N36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. THIS WAVE WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND
UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N54W 12N57W 7N58W...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STILL FROM 4N TO 20N
BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO
12N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 5N22W AND
6N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO 28N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N67W 26N78W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
EVERYWHERE UNDER THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 29N80W 27N90W 26N97W...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 31N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 31N76W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N82W
IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N71W...
29N81W...BEYOND 22N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KEMK...
AND AT KGBK.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST
FLORIDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND IT
CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N FROM 74W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO
8N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO SECTION. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N53W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N55W LOW CENTER TO 33N54W TO
THE NORTH...AND TO 23N55W TO THE SOUTH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N51W 23N46W 18N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 19N41W 25N49W 28N50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO
30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N
NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 34N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 34N29W
LOW CENTER TO 30N29W 28N30W AND 24N34W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT1/FZNT01
KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND
33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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