Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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756
AXNT20 KNHC 021150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 6N18W TO 4N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N32W THEN RESUMES NEAR 3N35W TO S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ FROM 5N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-9W...AND FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-43W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW ATLC. A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N W OF 87W TO OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO
REPORT PATCHES OF FOG N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N95W ALONG 26N96W TO 23N96W.
LOCALLY DENSE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG WILL DISPERSE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NW GULF THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING AND FROM MOBILE BAY
ALABAMA TO 18N95W BY TUE EVENING THEN FROM SANIBEL ISLAND
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED EVENING BEFORE
MOVING SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
DIPPING S ACROSS PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA WHILE A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF A
LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO VENEZUELA NEAR
11N69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75W S OF 10N TO OVER COLOMBIA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MODESTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE INCREASING TO STRONG
EACH NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THU AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL
BELIZE THU EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E ON WED.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 26N44W THEN W ALONG 25N60W
THEN SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W
ATLC E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 32N59W TO 27N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N52W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW
NEAR 25N57W TO 22N60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N39W TO
21N41W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 47W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC LATER TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A
POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY TODAY THEN
SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA ON TUE NIGHT AND WILL REACH
FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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