Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N30W
through a weak 1012 mb low near 14N31W to 9N31W moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 6 hours. Wave coincides with a well
defied 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and
within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
57W/58W from 10N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within
120 nm of a line from 20N57W to over the Lesser Antilles to near
16N62W.

Tropical wave over the southwest Gulf of Mexico extends from
21N96W across Mexico into the east Pacific region moving west
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm along the coast of
Mexico from Veracruz and Tampico. Wave exited the Gulf waters at
25/1500 UTC. Please see the east Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W and continues along 8N32W to 8N45W where
the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near 8N59W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120
nm south of the monsoon trough between 18W-21W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 250 nm along the coast
of Africa from 6N-14N, within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 27W-38W, and from 6N-10N between 51W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over central Texas extending a ridge
axis southeast over the south Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan
peninsula. An upper low is centered over the east Gulf near
26N84W extending an upper trough northwest to over southeast
Louisiana supporting a surface trough that extends from 1014 mb
low along the coast of southeast Louisiana near 29N90W to
27N84W. This is generating scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are within 330 nm south of the surface
trough and north of 26N between 90W-95W. Isolated showers and
possible thunderstorms cover the area north of the surface
trough and east of 84W to the Florida coast. The surface trough
and upper trough will gradually shift northwest through Tuesday
night. The surface ridge will shift back across the north Gulf
Tuesday night through midweek. A thermal trough will move off
the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through
midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted upper trough extends from a an upper low near 13N78W
across east/central Cuba into the southwest Atlantic supporting
a surface trough that extends from 17N77W through the Windward
Passage to over the Turks and Caicos to near 23N71W. This is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
120 nm northwest of the surface trough. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia across Costa Rica along 9N/10N generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N
between 78W-82W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm of
16N between 67W-83W. The tight pressure gradient between the
west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South
America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean that will continue through the midweek.
The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean this
evening and is already giving the Lesser Antilles showers. The
wave will move into the central Caribbean by midweek.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are developing over the island this afternoon. Afternoon/
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight.
Tuesday will see an increase in moisture across the island, thus
showers and thunderstorms, as the tropical wave that will enter
the Caribbean tonight moves across the island Tuesday through
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge anchored over North Carolina extends over the
northwest Atlantic north of 27N west of 67W blocking the
inverted upper trough that extends across east/central Cuba to
27N75W supporting a surface trough that extends from 23N71W
across the Turks and Caicos through the Windward Passage to
17N77W in the Caribbean. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are within 150 nm northwest of the surface trough.
An upper trough is north of the 31N between 55W-63W supporting a
frontal boundary north of the area with a surface trough
extending through 32N61W to 29N66W. Scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the
surface trough. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic with a surface ridge extending from a 1030 mb
high west-northwest of the Azores through 32N46W along 28N55W to
over central Florida. Surface ridge will persist through
midweek. The surface trough over the southwest Atlantic/
Caribbean will drift west tonight through early Thursday. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola
each evening through midweek.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW


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