Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 08N39W to 00N39W moving west at 10
kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum.  Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 11N55W to 03N56W moving west at 15
kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A
0134 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave`s wind
shifts.  Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 08N13W to 04N20W to 04N23W where the ITCZ begins
and then extends to 03N38W.  The ITCZ continues west of a
tropical wave at 03N41W to the coast of South America near
03N51W.  Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
00W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 31N82W
to the NE Gulf near 29N95W to S Louisiana near 30N92W. Radar
imagery shows an area of scattered moderate convection along the
coast of Louisiana from 28N-30N between 90W-93W. 10 kt northerly
winds are north of the front. A 1015 mb high is centered over
the NE Gulf near 25N86W. 10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the E
Gulf. Further south, scattered moderate convection is inland
over southern Mexico south of 19N between 91W-100W. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern CONUS with an
axis along 80W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is
enhancing convection over the western Atlantic. Expect in 24
hours for a cold front to extend from the western Atlantic to
central Florida with showers. Also expect over the next 24 hours
for an upper level low to form over North Carolina.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient over the central and western
Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-30 kt tradewinds.
Strongest winds are along the coast of NW Venezuela.  A 1008 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W.  Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 04N-10N between 72W-78W.
Scattered moderate convection is inland over Guatemala and El
Salvador.  Scattered showers remain over Cuba, Hispaniola, and
Puerto Rico.  Elsewhere scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands.  In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered
over Honduras.  An upper level trough is over the eastern
Caribbean.  Upper level diffluence SE of the trough is enhancing
the showers over Trinidad.  Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of showers over the E Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola supported by surface
moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a diffluent
environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist for
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the western Atlantic to
include the northern Bahamas N of 25N between 68W-75W due
primarily to upper level diffluence. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N46W to 30N56W.  A stationary front continues to
beyond 31N63W.  Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 27N35W with mostly fair weather.  Expect in 24 hours for a
cold front to be over the western Atlantic near 31N75W to south
Florida near 26N80W.  Also expect the central Atlantic front to
dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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