Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 162336

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 06N12W to 02N18W where the ITCZ
begins and continues west to 02N28W to 01S41W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along both boundaries between 10W-35W.



A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high
centered over the northwest Atlantic. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole Gulf.
This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through
Tuesday night as the ridge remains in place. A broad upper-level
ridge continues to reside over the basin. This ridge will be
strong enough to hold an upper-level trough currently approaching
from the west over northern Mexico. The next front to approach
the area will reach the coast of Texas on Tuesday evening, but it
is then expected to stall beneath deep layer SW flow.


The broad surface high that prevails across the west Atlantic also
extends south reaching the Caribbean waters. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh trades across the basin, with strong winds remaining
just north of Colombia between 73W-77W. Satellite imagery shows
isolated trade wind showers moving over Puerto Rico and advecting
west across the basin. In the upper levels, a weak upper-level
trough crosses the Caribbean from Hispaniola to Northern Colombia.
Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean suppressing deep
convection. Expect similar weather conditions through Tuesday
night when a low pressure will move eastward from the United
States east coast weakening the ridge in the west Atlantic and
allowing winds to subside slightly in the Caribbean.


Fresh northeast winds prevail over the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Winds will subside slightly on Wednesday as the
ridge to the north weakens. Expect isolated showers to continue
through Wednesday while the northeast flow persists.


A broad surface high centered near 38N75W extends across the west
Atlantic. A weakening in this feature was analyzed as a
dissipating cold front that extends from 31N79W to 28N70W then a
cold front continues from that point to 28N58W to 31N50W.
Isolated showers are observed along the cold front. Another
dissipating frontal boundary extends across the eastern Atlantic
analyzed as a stationary front from 31N29W to 22N34W. To the
south, a surface trough is generating scattered showers across
Suriname and adjacent waters mainly south of 10N between 50W-57W.
Expect for the weak frontal boundaries to dissipate within the
next 24 hours. The cold front in the central Atlantic will
continue moving east with isolated showers. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

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