Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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