Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fiona is centered near 25.1N 61.3W at
22/2100 UTC or about 425 nm north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, or 469 nm south-southeast of Bermuda moving
west-northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between 57W-
61W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 12.1N 29.0W at
22/2100 UTC or about 312 nm west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N-14N between 27W-31W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Central Atlantic with axis from
20N52W to 08N51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is
accompanied by a 1011 mb low near 16N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 14N-19N between 49W-54W. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional development
of this system over the next several days. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and Central
America axis from 20N87W to 08N88W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is inland from 13N-20N
between 88W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W through T.D. Seven near 12N29W to 08N35W to
10N43W. The ITCZ begins near 08N52W and continues to the coast
of South America near 06N58W. Other than convection associated
with T.D. Seven and the tropical wave, isolated moderate
convection is from 06N-09N between 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the northeastern Gulf anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 28N87W. This ridge supports gentle winds
over the northeastern Gulf, and mainly moderate east to
southeasterly winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over Louisiana and Florida. Expect
over the next 24 hours for more convection to be over the
northern Gulf States due to a quasi-stationary front. Also
expect the northern portion of a tropical wave to produce
additional convection over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details. The pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh to strong winds from 11N-
16N between 69W-82W. Moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere over
the Caribbean basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica due to the monsoon
trough. Isolated moderate convection is inland over Hispaniola.
Otherwise, the Caribbean is free of convection. Over the next 24
hours the western Caribbean wave will exit the basin. A tropical
wave and associated low over the central Atlantic will affect
the Leeward Islands beginning Tuesday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated moderate convection is inland over Hispaniola due to
maximum heating. More tropical moisture is forecast to advect
over the island Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.D. Fiona, T.D. Seven, and a tropical wave are the main
features across the basin. Please see above for more details. A
1019 mb center of high pressure is located over the N Bahamas
near 27N77W. The remainder of the area is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 34N46W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA



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