Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171653
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N70W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-
71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 15N20W TO 13N25W TO 13N30W TO 12N39W TO 7N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N52W AND
CONTINUES TO 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
85W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N W OF 83W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
E AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER N HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 30N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE  CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N50W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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