Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W to the NW
Bahamas to W Cuba near 23N80W to the northern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. Gale force SW winds are N of 29N
within 300 nm E of the front with seas 10-17 ft. The gale is
forecast to end in 24 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
00N22W. The ITCZ extends from 00N22W to 02S30W to 01S40W to the
South American Coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-08N between 06W-10W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04S-02N between 22W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered along the coast of SE Louisiana near
29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico.
An area of broken multilayered clouds are over the SW Gulf from
18N-26N between 93W-99W. Scattered showers are N of Tampico
Mexico. Elsewhere radar imagery shows isolated showers over S
Florida moving E. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over
the W Gulf, while subsidence is over N Florida. Expect the
surface high in 24 hours to be off the Atlantic coast of central
Florida near 29N79W. Expect return flow over the entire Gulf,
with scattered showers over the W Gulf W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to the northern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows
scattered showers over central Puerto Rico. More showers are
over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and W Panama. 10-20 kt tradewinds
are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the
Caribbean Sea with axis along 60W. Upper level moisture is over
the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, and Cuba. Strong
subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the the tail-end
of the cold front to be over E Cuba near 21N76W with scattered
showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies persist across the island as upper level dry
air and stable conditions aloft prevail. Expect in 24 hours for
prefrontal showers to be over the Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W to the NW
Bahamas to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm E of front N of 27N. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A gale is within 300 nm E
of front N of 29N. See above. A 1027 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 33N37W. Of note in the upper levels,
an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N W of 55W
supporting the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front
to extend from 31N54W to 23N70W to E Cuba near 21N76W with
convection and showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


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