Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 251134

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N14W where it transitions into the ITCZ and continues to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 19W-40W.



A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 29N92W to
26N96W. No significant convection is observed along this boundary
at this time. A 1012 mb high is centered across the northeast
waters near 27N87W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
anticyclonic flow prevailing across most of the basin except north
of the cold front over the northwest waters, where moderate to
fresh northerly winds prevail. Expect for the front to continue
moving east with fresh to strong northeasterly winds developing
behind it. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to
the northern Bay of Campeche by late this morning and pass
through the Straits of Florida on Sunday with southeast return
flow developing over the Gulf mainly west of 90W.


A broad area of high pressure extends across the central and
eastern Atlantic reaching the Caribbean waters. Winds are
generally light and variable across most of the basin with wave
heights around 2 to 3 FT. Moderate easterly winds are depicted in
scatterometer data south of 13N between 72W-78W. As high pressure
builds to the north of the area by late in the weekend, moderate
to fresh trade winds are expected to resume. Strongest winds are
expected once again within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia by late


A surface trough extends across the northwestern portion of the
island with cloudiness and isolated showers. The trough will
dissipate within the next 24 hours. Low-level southwesterly flow
will prevail enhancing afternoon showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend.


A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 30N74W. This low will
continue moving northeast at about 15 kt while occluding. A cold
front extends from 31N65W to 25N66W with isolated showers mainly
north of 27N. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail in the
vicinity of the low and front mainly north of 28N between 63W-69W.
To the east, a stationary front was analyzed from 31N38W to
22N56W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge extending southwest from a 1026 MB high centered
near 33N26W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front to
continue moving east with convection. The stationary front will

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