Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221736

205 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 02N44W to 09N37W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated
relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis near
07N. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave.

Tropical wave extends from 03N59W to 10N58W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with a weakening 700 mb trough across Guyana
and the adjacent coastal waters. Isolated moderate convection is
from 08N to 10N between 56W and 60W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N22W to 03N33W to 04N43W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 79N between the Prime Meridian and


Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the SW North Atlc that supports a 1008 mb low
offshore of the Carolinas and stretches a cold front from
thelowto across the northern Florida peninsula then to
29N88Wwhere the front becomes stationary to the Texas and
Louisiana border near 30N94W. The front continues along
theTexascoast to near Corpus Christi. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring N of 26N between 86W and
95W...withstrongeractivity occurring along a squall
linesouthofthe front from 28N90W to 28N93W. Otherwise... the
remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow as weak ridging anchored by a 1016
mbhigh centered near 26N87W is expected to remain across the
eastern Gulf through the overnight into early Monday...while the
weak frontal boundary moves eastward into the SW North Atlc
region by Monday morning. Thereafter through Tuesday...moderate
to occasional E-SE flow is forecast across the western Gulf
waters as low pressure develops across the central plains.

The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains
relatively strong due to a building ridge anchored across the
central Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South
America. The gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong
trades across the basin with the strongest winds
occurringacrossthe south-central portion of the basin. As the
high shifts west through Monday across the Atlc...the gradient is
expected to maintain the area of fresh to strong trades
acrossthe eastern and central Caribbean primarily E of 76W.
Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the
remainder of the Caribbean with only a few isolated showers
andtstms occurring S of 10N across the adjacent coastal

Conditions remain fairly tranquil across the island with mostly
clear skies noted on satellite imagery this afternoon. Dry
westerly flow aloft is further supporting a dry and subsident

A middle to upper level trough is centered over the NE CONUSwith
troughing dipping southward over much of the SW NorthAtlc region
this afternoon. The trough supports a 1008 mblow centered off
the Carolina coast near 34N77W with the associated cold front
extending SW to the northern Florida peninsula near 30N81W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms areoccurring N of 30N
between 73W and 77W. A pre-frontal surfacetrough is analyzed
from 29N78w to the Florida Straitsnear25N80W. Isolated showers
and tstms are occurring wellto the east of the boundary N of 23N
between 65W and 73W.This convection is largely enhanced by
middle to upper leveldiffluence east of the broad troughing
aloft. Farther northeast...a deep layered low is centered over
the central North Atlc and supports a cold front analyzed from
32N38W to 30N49W where it becomes stationary to 30N54W...then a
warmfrontto 32N63W. Possible isolated showers are within
90nmeither side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N34W.

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