Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


A system of low pressure over the NE Atlc will support a cold
front forecast to extend from 31N43W to 29N53W by late Sunday
night. A strong pressure gradient between this area of low
pressure and surface ridging west of it will lead to the
development of gale-force winds east of the front. Gale
conditions are forecast to prevail through Monday morning. For
more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W and
continues southwestward to 03N32W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 00N48W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 02N-06N between 05W-15W.



Generally fair weather prevails across the basin with only
patches of clouds moving quickly across the area. Winds are
mostly light to moderate out of the east and southeast across the
area, and seas are up to 6 feet in some locations. The exception
is the far SE Gulf where latest scatterometer data show fresh
winds, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. No
significant changes are expected this weekend. Another front is
expected to move over the northwestern waters on Sunday, but this
feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly after.


Fair weather conditions prevail across the basin. The only area
with a few showers is located SW of Hispaniola mainly north of
16N between 73W-79W. Abundant dry air in the mid-to-upper levels
of the atmosphere is expected to limit significant thunderstorms
from developing. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with locally strong winds within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia. These winds will pulse every night through
the weekend. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up to
14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are occurring east
of about 82W. Looking ahead into the weekend, winds and seas are
expected to gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the
north of the area weakens in place.


Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the Special
Features section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are
occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure
centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are
supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the
subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. The low
pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move
eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold front is
expected to move into the same region bringing another round of
strong winds. Little change is expected over the remainder of the
basin during the next day or two as the high pressure system
remains stationary and weakens.

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