Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 121810
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1110 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Wind chill advisory has been cancelled for nwrn SD. No major
changes to fcst for the rest of today, although did need to raise
high temps most areas a few degress given latest trends. Also
raised sky cover a bit towards the Neb border.

Will likely be raising pops for our srn zones for tonight with
this aftns forecast package. Models coming into better agreement
painting an inch or so of accumlation towards the Neb border given
fairly robust short wave currently moving through the cntrl
Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 222 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Current surface map places high pressure across eastern South
Dakota into eastern Nebraska. Area of low pressure across southern
Manitoba, with reinforcing arctic cold front into northeast
Montana and southwest North Dakota. Arctic front slips into
northwest South Dakota today with a period of gusty northwest
winds. Some patchy blowing snow expected behind the front. Core of
cold air shifts eastward tonight, with low level warm advection
across the forecast area. Some light snow possible tonight across
southwest and south central South Dakota. Warmer on Friday with
some 30s in the Black Hills. However, much of northwest South
Dakota will remain in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Temperatures will continue to warm gradually in the absence of
the arctic airmass, aided by southwesterly low-level winds. Dry
weather is also expected through the middle of next week. A low
pressure system will shift into the northern plains early next
week, but models continue to keep precipitation south and east of
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1030 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning. Some MVFR to
local IFR ceilings and visibility will be possible in light snow
from southwestern into south central SD, mainly between 03Z to 15Z
Friday.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Johnson
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...15


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