Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 271835
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1235 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TREK ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES
FROM NEAR FAITH AND PHILIP...BACK WEST TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND WEST TO SUNDANCE AND MOORCROFT. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE BADLANDS AREA SOUTHWEST INTO FALL RIVER
COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE
PREVALENT. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
WY...WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. UPPER WAVE WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...AND 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF OVER WESTERN SD...WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS LOW DEEPENS.
WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND...COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD
HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SFC TROF PUSHING INTO ERN WY. VERY WARM DAY IN
STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE A FEW TSTMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE NRN PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WDSPRD STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED TO EXIT WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MLS


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