Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 301728
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO
THE PAC NW. BREEZY SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE
NRN/NERN BLKHLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SHOWING STRONG DOWNSLOPING
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY
BREEZIER OVER SCNTRL SD. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL GREATLY HINDER INSTABILITY/QPF.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN. TEMPS MON WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CREATE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DECENT SIGNALS AND THE
EXPECTED EXTREMELY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE WY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS WILL DROP
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13


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