Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 291104
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR
HAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST US.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MLCIN FOR HOLD
OVER THE CWA SO REMOVED POPS. SUMMERY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THE RULE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...80S
IN THE HILLS. WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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