Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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226
FXUS63 KUNR 240806
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
206 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Upper trough covers the western 2/3 of the ConUS, as upper low
spins over southern SK. A 70-kt jet streak is over western SD,
along with a band of mid/high clouds. Radar is showing a few
echoes over northeastern WY...but with dry air at low levels,
doubt anything is reaching the ground. Surface winds are
northwesterly around 5-10 mph, and temperatures are in the 60s.

Cooler and moist air will push into the region today and tonight as
the trough swings through the northern plains. Some weak instability
over the Hills may allow for some showers/storms there this
afternoon and evening. Another day of breezy northwest winds is in
store for northwestern SD, as the upper jet lingers over that area
and low level pressure gradient tightens. Highs will be in the 70s,
warmer across central SD. Lows will be generally in the 40s, with
some 30s in the Black Hills.

Upper low/trough will diminish into westerly flow as it shifts
eastward out of the region Thursday. Chances for precip will
increase from west to east beginning early Thursday as another
trough approaches the area. Temperatures will be cool again -
ranging from the 60s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to
the mid 70s across south central SD - and so instability will be
minimal. Much of the precip is expected to be in the form of
showers as it spreads across the CWA Thursday night, although
there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms. QPF through
Thursday night will be low, as profiles do not moisten much until
after midnight when winds become southeasterly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The upper trough extending through the Rockies will push through
the central ConUS on Friday and early Saturday. Southeasterly
surface winds ahead of the trough will pull moisture into the
region. This will result in increasing PoPs and a modest shot of
QPF for areas east of the Black Hills. Temperatures on Friday and
Saturday will be cooler than normal.

Weak upper level ridging redevelops during the Sunday through
Tuesday time frame. This will allow much warmer temperatures and
drier conditions to return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 201 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Mid
level clouds are expected to increase in coverage late
Wednesday/early Thursday.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...MLS



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