Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 150319
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1019 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
Still expect the low clouds and patchy fog currently over central
and southern Missouri and southern Illinois to spread north across
the area tonight on southerly low level flow. Have kept the
patchy or areas of fog wording in the forecast. Going winds and
temperatures still look good.
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
Mid/upper level system currently over SE MO is expected to continue
to move southeastward away from the area. Low-level warm/moist
advection will continue overnight tonight. Stratus will be a
concern...though exact coverage/placement is a bit uncertain.
Believe much of the area by late tonight will be overtaken by low
stratus. Models also hinting at drizzle with weak lift at low
levels. Did add mention of drizzle in areas where lower (i.e., IFR)
ceilings are expected.
The cool morning lows of the past few days will be a thing of the
past tonight. Combination of southerly sfc winds and increased cloud
cover will yield much warmer lows tonight compared to earlier this
week. Lows are expected to be largely in the upper 50s to near 60
Lingering stratus will be the main concern for tomorrow. The
uncertainty of how quickly the stratus breaks up will be the primary
factor in determining Saturday afternoon`s high temperatures. Leaned
toward warmer solutions however as believe stratus will largely be
gone by midday. This would likely yield highs ranging from the upper
70s to lower 80s. However...if stratus lingers over any particular
area until mid afternoon...highs may only be in the low 70s.
.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
The weak trof over the area today continues to move ewd allowing an
upper ridge to build into the area this weekend. This ridge will
persist thru about mid next week when the main trof is expected to
eject into the Plains.
Until then, much of the forecast is dry and quite warm. Only minor
changes to temps with Mon still the warmest day. Going forecast ties
records for Mon. Can not rule out some warmer temps on Mon, but will
continue to see what trends in mdls do.
Focus turns to the cdfnt mid week. Have lower confidence in how this
system will verify, but have trended twd the ECMWF/GEM soln. May be
able to increase PoPs for Wed afternoon and night if trends continue
and reduce for Thurs and beyond. However, have kept low chance to
account for the GFS for now despite it currently being an outlier.
Either way, temps Thurs and beyond are more seasonable for the area.
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to
develop across the area after 06Z tonight. These conditions are
expected to last through the morning on Saturday before the
ceilings rise back to VFR by 18Z. Some drizzle will be possible
late tonight and early on Saturday morning.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to
affect the terminal between 09-18Z. Some drizzle will be possible
during this time period, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAF at this time.
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to persist through
the weekend and into early next week and may approach record
territory. The following lists record high temperatures and
record high minimum temperatures for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy from Sunday to Tuesday.
10/16 High Low:65/196566/196867/1968