Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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648
FXUS63 KLSX 041831
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. A series
of fronts moving through the area will cause some minor wind
shifts at the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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