


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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290 FXUS63 KUNR 282329 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 529 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms (some severe) this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-90. Primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Thunderstorms continue through tonight into Sunday, with locally heavy rainfall possible - Drier on Monday. Chances for isolated thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Visible satellite imagery shows CU field developing across northeastern WY and along a sfc boundary over the Black Hills. Sfc obs show dewpoints in the 50s to 60s across much of western SD into northeastern WY with drier air over southwestern SD and nosing into the Black Hills. Corridor of 2000+ J/kg CAPE has developed across much of the western SD plains and northeastern WY with mostly clear skies allowing plenty of sfc heating. 18z UNR RAOB does show a modest capping inversion from 850-775 mb which has limited convection thus far. Isolated storms may develop over the Black Hills and higher terrain in WY where terrain driven convergence and upslope flow should be sufficient to overcome the cap. Any updrafts that form this afternoon will encounter 40kt bulk shear which will be sufficient for rotating updrafts. With the relatively fat CAPE profile, dry boundary layer, and modest low to mid level lapse rates of ~7-8 C/km, main concerns with any stronger convection will be large hail and damaging winds. Later tonight, converging outflow boundaries from this afternoons storms may contribute to a predominately linear mode with a damaging wind threat becoming the main concern. Additionally, PWAT values approaching 150-175% of normal will support heavy rainfall with storms tonight. Upper level trough deepens and moves to the east through Sunday with baroclinic zone sagging southward through the area. This frontal boundary could support more convection Sunday afternoon. In terms of severe potential, widespread severe weather isn`t expected with afternoon CAPE values approaching 1000-1500 J/kg, however 30-40kt 0- 6 km shear could support a few stronger updrafts. Ridge builds into the region Sunday night into Monday with large scale subsidence and drier air supporting a warm and dry day Monday. The ridge will also facilitate the return of warmer temperatures to the region through the next week. Northwest flow will set up over the CWA as the ridge remains to our west. This will support chances for at least daily chances for isolated convection from Tuesday through the mid week as weak disturbances move along the upper level flow and low level southerly flow continues to advect warm and moist air into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 525 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue through 06z mainly east of the KRAP terminal. Expect large hail and vrb25g35kt with the stronger storms. Aft 06z MVFR conditions are possible late in the period as a backdoor front crosses the region and more widespread showers and storms. West of the Black Hills region VFR conds are expected through the valid terminal period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Hintz