Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 241740
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1140 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF RAIN ARCING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS PRODUCING THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLACK HILLS. THE RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER NORTHWARD
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ENDING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE BLACK HILLS
BETWEEN 100 PM MDT AND 400 PM MDT. EVEN AFTER THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ENDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH JET STREAK LIFTING NWD THROUGH FAR
ERN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW WAS DEEPENING OVER FAR NRN CO/SERN WY.

TODAY...JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO WRN SD THIS MRNG WITH RAIN
BECOMING MORE WDSPRD AND HEAVIER FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD.
THIS BAND OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
DAY...HEAVIEST ACROSS OUR WRN TWO/THIRDS ZONES. DEEP CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER...BUT IF ANY
CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN OUR FAR SRN ZONES NEAR THE NEB BORDER A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HOURS. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING 0.50-0.75 INCHES IN NERN WY AND WRN SD...AND
AROUND 0.25 IN OUR ERN ZONES TODAY.

TONIGHT...BETTER CHANCES FOR WDSPRD PCPN IN OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN WY/WRN SD...WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING
LIMITING PCPN SOMEWHAT IN OUR SRN ZONES.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH PCPN
CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION ON MONDAY AGAIN LOOK RATHER SLIM GIVEN
EXPECTED WDSPRD LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH AREA OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF SWRN SD INTO
NERN WY WL CONT THRU MON MORN. UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING LIFR
CIGS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS
INVERTED SFC TROF MOVES INTO ERN NE-DAKOTAS AND WNDS SHIFT FROM NE
TO NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE BAND OF RAIN IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES
PER HOUR. STREAMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS ARE RISING...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ANOTHER INCH OF PCPN...WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE. RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE
RUNNING HIGH FROM THE RECENT STORMS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE MORE FLOODING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SDZ024>031-041-042-
     072>074.

WY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55
HYDROLOGY...55


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