Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 021721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS INCREASING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM
LARGE DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15


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