Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 052331
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SD...AND INTO CENTRAL WY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD NOW. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN WY INTO FAR
WESTERN SD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. A FAIRLY
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW...RANGING FROM 60S
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD TODAY
HAS KEPT ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND CAPPED OVER THIS AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG SHEAR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A WIND TRHEAT LATER IN
THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS
ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS NEAR THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THERE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...INSTABILITY LOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTO
NORTHEAST WY...WHERE CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN.
THE SEVERE RISK OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED BY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON..
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTN/NIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WED AND THU WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING GREATLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. THE WETTER
SOLUTION IS THE GFS WHICH HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY PUSHING WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
KEEPS THE REMNANT LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME...KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...26


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