Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 020924
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS DOWN TO THE ERN CO PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS CROSSING
ALBERTA INTO MT...WITH WEAK RIDGING NOW ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WYOMING. THE UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ENTERING NW SD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...EXITING TO NEB BY
AROUND 02Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MARGINALLY
AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. POSSIBLY THE INITIAL PUSH WILL HAVE
STRONGER GUSTS...BEFORE SETTLING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DAYSHIFT WILL
NEED TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK WITH 12Z MODEL DATA. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PUSH...BUT LITTLE QPF IS
EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH QUICKLY.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LL MIXING
INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS
THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF SD...BUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE WRN SD PLAINS
MAY NEED WIND HEADLINES. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY AND
SUNNY SKIES. MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF THE COLD AIRMASS...SO
HAVE DROPPED TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. A FREEZE LOOKS
MARGINAL FOR SCNTRL SD FRI NIGHT...BUT ITS POSSIBLE...AND HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

DEEP UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH. CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ACRS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BLKHLS GIVEN STEEP LO
LVL LAPSE RATES. ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MOSTLY OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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