Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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691
FXUS63 KUNR 121012
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS.
CAA BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS MRNG BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S OVER CNTRL
SD TO LOW 40S OVER NE WY. AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKER NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING EXPECTED UPSLOPING AT BAY SO FAR...SO HAVE
DROPPED POPS DOWN TO LOW CHC. OTHERWISE A GENERALLY QUIET DAY
EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS REMAINING.

OVERRUNNING WILL DEVELOP TNGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK
TOWARD THE E/NE. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CNTRL
SD AND FOG/FZDZ OVER WRN SD AND THE BLKHLS. AREA OF LIGHT WILL SLIDE
E/NE ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY WITH LINGERING FOG/PATCHY FZDZ ACROSS
THE DAKOTA PLAINS. A S/W IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS NW
TO CNTRL SD. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN OR SNOW...BUT SOME AREAS
ACROSS NW/CNTRL SD MIGHT SEE LIGHT FZRA IN THE AFTN HOURS IF
800MB WARMER LAYER DOESNT COOL QUICKLY ENOUGH.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LOW POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BECOMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL AID DEEP
MIXING AND GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SO EXPECT SOME
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FZFG AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY OVER MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



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