Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 261735
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN SK...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH LARGE SCALE TROF
COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AT THE MOMENT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST
SD. THIS CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING. KUDX RADAR STILL SHOWS SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWEST SD...BUT THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND
5 BELOW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD...WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT...TO NEAR 10 ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE MOSTLY
FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH...HELPING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS TO
AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST SD.

COLD...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH
WIND CHILLS STAYING BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST SD...EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL ALSO KEEP LOW POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

BITTER COLD TONIGHT AS HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN
NORTHWEST SD AND THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ELSEWHERE...TO NEAR OR SLIGHT
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY AND
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. MILDER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
20S...WITH SOME SPOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS NEAR 30.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND WARMER PACIFIC SOURCED AIR PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS STILL AGREE ON A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN SWINGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LAGS BEHIND
THE GFS BY AROUND 6 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED TUESDAY HIGHS OVER NERN
WYOMING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD ON
TUES/TUES NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS
EVENING. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7





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