Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 282107
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
207 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 129 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Surface and upper analysis shows strong stacked low over far ern
ND with gusty NW winds across the cwfa. The leading edge of wrap
around rain/snow has pivoted southwest to near a K2WX-KPHP-KICR
line early this afternoon.

Trowal will continue to rotate around the low with pcpn spreading
southwest across the cwfa tonight. Model guidance remains quite
consistent showing a prolonged period of upslope snow for the nrn
Blkhls from this evening through late Tuesday evening where
amounts near a foot are possible, with higher amounts possible
near favored upslope areas closer to O`Neil pass. Spearfish
through Sturgis to near Tilford could receive 6 inches or more,
with amounts then drastically diminishing from Piedmont to Rapid
City under downslope effects. Many other areas on the plains of
nern WY and wrn SD will see a few inches of snowfall, with the
least amounts from Rapid City through far swrn SD. The snow will
begin tapering late Tuesday night.

As a secondary push of cold air works through the area tonight,
expect winds to increase further with some areas of warning
criteria winds across nwrn SD and possible extending as far south
as KRAP. These strong winds will continue through the day Tuesday
into at least Tuesday evening. The combination of strong winds
and snow will make for hazardous travel conditions across a large
portion of nern WY and wrn SD, with the least impacts likely from
Rapid City through far swrn SD where little snow accumulation is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Storm system will finally move away from the region on Wednesday
with decreasing chances for snow over western South Dakota. Breezy
conditions and temps in the upper 20s to upper 30s are expected.
Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week and the
weekend as the next west coast system dives south over the western
states late in the week and should remain south of the region into
the weekend. Weaker northern stream energy could bring light snow
showers at times from Thursday through the weekend into early next
week mainly over the northern Black Hills area. Temperatures will
be near or slightly below average late this week, with a slight
warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 129 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

MVFR/IFR conditions across northwest to central SD will continue
to spread southwest across the rest of the CWA as snow moves into
the area. Areas of LIFR are expected across the northern Black
Hills and portions of northeast Wyoming. Strong northwesterly
winds will also continue through tonight and Tuesday...with some
gusts to 50 kt across the western SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
     Wednesday for SDZ001-012-024-025-028-072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for SDZ013-030>032-042>044-
     046-047-073.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST Tuesday for SDZ026-027-041-074.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ001-012-013-
     030>032-072-073.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for SDZ002-014.

WY...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
     Wednesday for WYZ057-071.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Tuesday for WYZ054-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



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