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000
FXUS63 KUNR 040936
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
TROUGH/WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT TO NORTHEAST CO. WATER VAPOUR
SHOWED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MT WITH PATCH OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER EASTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MT. A FEW RETURNS OVER THE CWA IN THE NORTH. AS WAVE RACES EAST
THIS MORNING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST. HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH GIVEN LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS WELL AS SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE -SHSN INITIALLY GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
CWA...BUT THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHRA AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY WITH
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WIND ON THE SD PLAINS AND SNOWCOVER.

TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS END AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN CO/WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
IN THE WEST AND BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON THE SD PLAINS GIVEN BETTER
MIXING...LESSENING SNOW COVER...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

TRANSIENT RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A MODEST COOL-DOWN
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
LIKELY BE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. AN UPPER RIDGE
THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH MILD AND DRY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15