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000
FXUS63 KUNR 270244
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
744 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FCST MINS IN PARTS OF NERN
WY AND THE BLKHLS SO HAVE UPDATED FCST ACCORDINGLY. WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR WRN ZONES SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH FURTHER TEMPS
WILL FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA SO FAR TODAY HAVE REACHED THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS ARE GENERALLY BLOWING AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WHILE LIGHTER OVER NE WY. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHSN ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS PORTIONS OF CUSTER COUNTY.

SHSN WILL END TONIGHT AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AREAWIDE. LOWS WILL
DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE WY
PLAINS MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP RAISE TEMPS
SLIGHTLY. WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
EARLY FRI MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE WRN SD PLAINS...AND CONTINUING OVER THE NE WY PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...REACHING THE
20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND WARMER PACIFIC SOURCED AIR PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS STILL AGREE ON A BRIEF WARMUP
MONDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND
THE STORM OVER THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED TUESDAY HIGHS SOME MORE
OVER NE WY AND NW SD. THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION WILL
ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SRN BLKHLS ASSOCIATED WITH -SHSN WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7