Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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700
FXUS63 KUNR 040503
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...WITH TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ND INTO
CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE
REGION...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
NOW. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY COME TO AN END. SKIES ARE
VARIABLY CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL SD AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL SD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF.

BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SNOW
SHOWERS END BY EVENING AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS AGAIN...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT MIXING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S...WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IF FUTURE MODEL TRENDS ARE A LITTLE
QUICKER...MAY NEED SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS STILL LOOKING TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PASS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROF
PASSES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL CROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL PUSH SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND KEEPS A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7



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