Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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898
FXUS63 KUNR 170520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE COMPLEX UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH DRY SLOT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG SHORT WAVE IS
NOTED EJECTING NWD INTO FAR ERN CO. AT THE SFC...BROAD LOW EXTENDS
FROM WRN SD SWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NWD...WITH
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS. BEST SVR PARAMETERS WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWFA BUT ENOUGH MLCAPE/SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELLS IN OUR SCNTRL SD
ZONES.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND A CDFNT EARLY AND BECOME
QUITE WINDY BY AFTN. MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON WIND POTENTIAL SO
WILL LET LATER FCST SHIFTS DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED
BASED ON LATER DATA. EXPECT -SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA GIVEN STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM THE BLACK HILLS
INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH PERSISTENT UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST
COAST BRINGING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM PCPN ON MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS. COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TO MAINLY RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH AT THIS POINT FOR SOME
SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD. WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOME 40S
OVER THE BLACK HILLS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA WILL RETURN TO THE FA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT MOST PLACES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC



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