Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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623
FXUS63 KUNR 190457
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
957 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 134 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

A deep upper trough covers the west coast, with ridging over the
northern plains. Clouds are decreasing across the CWA. With
surface high pressure across the eastern Dakotas and a trough
stretching into western SD, winds are generally southerly around
10-20 kts. Temperatures are warming into the 60s.

Warm air advection will continue Sunday in southwest flow ahead of
the approaching western CONUS trough. Most places will reach the
60s, with some lower 70s possible. As the trough moves through the
region Sunday night, a cool front and showers will push into the
area. Most of the precipitation is expected to be rain, but some
light snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations.
Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Shortwave moves north and east of the area Monday, with showers
ending from west to east during the morning. Behind the cool
front, northwest winds will be breezy, and highs will be cooler
but still above average (upper 40s to around 60). Shortwave ridge
on Tuesday will bring another warm day, with near record highs
possible in some areas aided by breezy west-southwest winds. Ridge
shifts east midweek, with some cooler temps and increasing clouds
on Wednesday.

Large scale trough along the west coast Wednesday is progged to move
quickly east across the Rockies Wednesday night and into the high
plains on Thursday. Medium range models continue to be in pretty
good agreement this far out on main feature, still showing a good
potential for significant snowfall across portions of the region
from late Wednesday night through Thursday night. The 12Z GFS
returned to the more northerly track across the CWA, similar to the
EC/Canadian, but the EC is still the slowest of the three. Will keep
high pops in place. The cold air accompanying this low will keep
temperatures below average into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 957 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. South to
southwest winds will be breezy, especially across northeastern
Wyoming.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...7



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