Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 180104

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
704 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Issued at 702 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria across nwrn SD so
have allowed the wind advisory to expire. Isolated -shra over nwrn
SD will diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating.


.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Upper shortwave continues to push through the northern
plains, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Satellite shows some clearing behind the wave. At the surface,
northwesterly winds are 20-30 mph, strongest across northwestern SD.
Models have continued to trend weaker with the winds, although some
show a slight increase later this afternoon. Will continue the
advisory for most places, but will cancel for areas no longer
expected to reach criteria.

Winds and showers will dissipate this evening as the wave shifts
east. Under mostly clear skies, lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

The western CONUS upper ridge will strengthen on Sunday, and a
warming trend will begin. Highs will be in the 70s, with mostly dry
conditions. Hi-res convective models are hinting at a few afternoon
showers, supported by some weak instability. However, model
soundings show dry low levels. Have added mention of showers/storms
for the Hills, but will leave out of the rest of the CWA for now.

For next week, strong upper ridging will keep weather warm and dry.
Highs will be in the 80s and 90s by midweek, with a slight cooldown
expected towards the end of the week.  Low temperatures will warm
back to the 50s and 60s for much of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 522 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period, with gusty NW winds
decreasing this evening.




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