Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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936
FXUS63 KUNR 050955
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND OBS. SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

AS WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A FAST-MOVING WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND NAM ARE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
GFS/NAM SHOW 50-60 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS NW SD BY 18Z
SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH CAA
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST SD 18Z
SAT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS MN. 700MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS COMBINED WITH
CAA/DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THESE WINDS MIXING TOWARDS THE SFC
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE
NRN BLKHLS ON SUNDAY BUT THOSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVE.
DRY WX ALONG WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY TO MID
WEEK TIME FRAME AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MRNG -SHSN TO NERN WY INTO
THE BLKHLS AND FAR WRN SD WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER -SHSN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY AFTN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-043-046-047-049- 072-073.

 HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
 FOR SDZ001-002.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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