Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 022300

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
400 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 153 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Upper trough is over the western and north central CONUS, and an
area of low clouds continues to cover much of the northern plains.
Radar echoes over central SD have been dissipating, but there
still may be a few flurries. With high pressure over the region,
winds are light and variable. Temperatures are in the 30s.

Clouds are expected to gradually move out of the area tonight, and
some fog may develop over the central SD plains late tonight into
Saturday morning. Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s.

Trough will cross the region Saturday, with increasing clouds and
winds becoming more westerly. Some limited moisture may allow for a
few snow showers over parts of northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and
northwestern SD, but most of the CWA should remain dry. Temperatures
will warm into the mid 30s and lower 40s. With breezy winds and
mostly cloudy skies, lows will be in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

A weak upper ridge over the northern plains and westerly
downslope flow at the surface will support dry weather with near
average temperatures on Sunday.

On Monday, an arctic cold front will cross the forecast area as an
upper trough over western Canada pushes southward into the northern
Rockies and plains. Expect some light snow to occur on Monday
afternoon and Monday night as the much colder air flows into the
region. Extended forecast models remain in general agreement,
keeping northerly upper flow over the forecast area into Thursday.
A building upper ridge will begin to warm temperatures from west to
east over the forecast area on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will be 20-30F cooler than average on Tuesday and Wednesday and then
will moderate some over northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills on
Thursday, then over the rest of western South Dakota on Friday,
although the arctic air is expected to remains in place longer over
central SD.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 358 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

Patchy fog with IFR visibility possible late tonight from
northwest into south central south dakota, otherwise VFR
conditions through Saturday morning. A few snow showers expected
across far northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota Saturday,
with local MVFR visibility.




SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
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