Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141129

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
529 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Upper flow is zonal over the northern plains, with numerous
clouds over the northwestern CONUS moving into the region. Low-
level trough axis is over the Rockies area, producing some breezy
southerly winds across the CWA. Temps are in the 40s and 50s, with
some 60s in the windy areas.

Southwesterly winds will increase today as trough crosses the
region, bringing in warm and dry air. Highs will be in the 70s
across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, and there is the
potential for records to be broken across parts of the western SD
plains, where highs are expected to reach the upper 80s. Clouds will
increase throughout the day as trough passes through, and winds will
shift to the northwest with a cool front this evening. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Significantly cooler yet still near to above average temperatures
are expected for Saturday, with cool high pressure overhead. Highs
will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, under partly cloudy skies.
Another low-level trough will approach the region overnight.
Winds will become southerly and clouds will increase. Lows will be
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

West to southwest flow aloft will continue Sunday and Monday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. Gusty winds are expected Sunday
given the gradient and deep mixing.

West flow aloft will slowly become northwest for the middle of next
week as a series of weak disturbances bring spotty showers to the
area along with cooler air.

Model guidance is somewhat uncertain for the end of next week with
an upper ridge potentially building into the northern Plains as an
upper low develops over the Mississippi River Valley. Eventual
position of this system will determine how much our temperatures
rebound for Thursday and Friday of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period as mainly cirrus
passes overhead. Low level wind shear will end this morning east
of the Black Hills. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to
develop and expand today across the entire area, slowly
diminishing tonight.


Issued At 233 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

West to southwest winds will increase this morning and become
quite gusty by early afternoon, around 20 to 30 mph with gusts of
35 to 40 mph. Temperatures look warmer than previously forecast,
and RH will be around 15 percent across much of the CWA.
Increasing clouds throughout the day may hinder temp rises and
mixing, but overall the potential exists for critical fire weather
conditions. Have expanded RFW to include entire area. Sunday looks
like another warm and windy day, but at this point min RH values
are only about 20-25%.


SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for



SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.