Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 220927

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
327 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Current map shows 1037mb high across the western Great Lakes. Warm
front located across central Wyoming into western Montana with
warm air aloft already showing up in the Black Hills. Some light
rain/freezing rain across south central South Dakota. This will
move east of forecast area early this morning. Warm front moves
into central Dakotas today with building upper level ridge. Highs
will be in the 60s for most of the area with some low 70s into
southwest South Dakota. A few showers possible late this afternoon
over northeast Wyoming.

Western CONUS trof moves into the Rockies late tonight and then
into the plains Thursday. Initial shortwave tracks into the
northern plains tonight. Steep mid level lapse rates and coupled
jet streaks will bring precipitation to northeast Wyoming into
northwest South Dakota tonight and Thursday. Thermal profiles
support rain. As trof closes off over the central plains Thursday
night, rain will shift towards Nebraska border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Upper low moves through central plains Friday with precipitation
shifting south of the forecast area. Progressive flow will
continue into next week. Chance for precipitation ramps up Monday
night and Tuesday with stronger upper trof impacting the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 315 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

MVFR/IFR ceilings over western South Dakota will rapidly dissipate
this morning with VFR conditions across the area late this morning
through this evening. Low level wind shear will occur early this
morning on the plains of western South Dakota. Gusty south winds
across northeast Wyoming and Black Hills early this morning will
spread onto the South Dakota plains and continue through this
afternoon. Rain showers will spread into northeast Wyoming and
northwestern South Dakota tonight with areas of MVFR ceilings and




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