Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 240947

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
247 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Latest analysis shows an upper trough dropping southward across
eastern Montana and western North Dakota early this morning in
line with the surface cold front. The regional radar mosaic shows
a line of rain associated with the region of strongest low and
mid-level frontogenesis along and to the north of the surface
front. Surface observations show winds gusting around 40kts as
the front pushes across eastern Montana. The front will continue
to push southward across the forecast area this morning, followed
by very windy conditions as indicated by 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises
currently behind the front over Montana. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for much of western South Dakota into this afternoon.
Expect some light rain with the frontal passage this morning,
especially over the northern Black Hills, with dry weather this
afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.

A broad area of surface high pressure will be located over the
forecast area tonight into Saturday. The upper level ridge will
rebuild to the west on Sunday leading to another surge of warm
temperatures with highs mainly in the 60s.

The next upper level trough will split as it crosses the Rockies
on Monday with another surface cold front moving through the
forecast area. The timing of the cold front will impact
high temperatures...with near record highs possible ahead of the
front. The best forcing associated with upper trough will remain
north and south of the forecast area...although some light
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Dry weather
and near average temperatures are then expected for the second
half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 158 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A strong
cold front will move through the region this morning, with
northwest winds gusting to 35-45 knots. The front will arrive in
the GCC/RAP area around 11z. Gusty winds will persist through
early afternoon, then slowly diminish through the remainder of the


SD...Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 PM MST this
     afternoon for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-031-032-072-073.



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