Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 270812

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
212 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Upper level vort max will shift east this morning, with showers
ending NW-SE. However, the stalled upper low to the north will
support diurnal chances for ISOLD shra/ts this afternoon as
another impulse rotates cyclonically through the region. Continued
unstable cyclonic flow will support lingering shra chances into
tonight esp the western third, albeit slight chances. Diurnal
chances for shra will resume Sunday, best over the western third
where better instability will be found. It will also be windy
Sunday (esp NW SD) as linked strong flow will be present with
steep ll lapse rates.

Dry weather can be expected Mon-Tues and most places Wed, with a
slow warming trend expected under shortwave ridging. Mean toughing
will become established over the western CONUS toward the middle
of next week with unsettled flow re-developing over the region per
impulse laden WSW flow. This will support a slow uptick in precip
chances later in the week. However, forecast models are not quite
agreeing on exact details per the evolution/progression of this
mean trough given flow blocking potential over much of Canada.
Slow warming trend will continue through the end of the week with
mainly seasonal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1026 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur tonight
over northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills area, and over
southwestern and south central South Dakota. LCL MVFR conditions
can be expected in and near any showers or thunderstorms. Over
northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and southwestern South
Dakota, widespread MVFR conditions will occur until around 13Z on
Saturday morning. Widespread MVFR conditions are also expected
over south central South Dakota from around 10Z Saturday morning
until around 18Z Saturday.




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