Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 160528

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1028 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Upper level analysis has broad trof sliding across the northern
Plains with weak shortwave crossing the CWA at the moment. Skies
are cloudy with light snow still falling from the Black Hills
east. At the surface, arctic cold front has moved south of the
area with temperatures steadily falling through this afternoon.
North winds behind the front have been very brisk, with gusts to
40 mph across the South Dakota plains.

Light snow will continue to diminish and shift east this
afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will also slowly diminish through
the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall
into the evening hours.

Arctic high pressure will slide across the Black Hills area by
midnight and shift south east by early Friday morning. Skies will
become partly cloudy to clear across the area overnight.

After a relatively chilly morning on Friday, temperatures will
warm back up into the 30s as WAA develops. A weak shortwave and
cold front will cross the area Friday night into Saturday morning
bringing a brief period of snow, with little accumulation. The
rest of Saturday into Saturday night will be dry, with
temperatures in the 30s again on Saturday.

A large upper trof will dive into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday
as a strong and quick moving shortwave skirts the northern
portions of the CWA. The associated surface low will drag another
arctic front through the area Sunday morning, bringing another
round of light snow to the area, along with colder temperatures.
Later Sunday night, the next upper shortwave ejects out of the
central Rockies into the northern Plains. Strong forcing
associated with the upper trof may bring wrap around precip into
the CWA through Monday. Much of the area should see snowfall, but
models still differ a bit on where the heaviest band of snow will
fall. Both the GFS/ECMWF are showing the potential for a swath of
5 to 10 inches across the area. Cool and dry weather is expected
toward the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1026 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conds expected through most of the period. The exception will
be far NW SD late Fri evening where MVFR conds may develop as
another system pushes into the region.




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