Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010020
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
620 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
MN...WITH COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. LAST NIGHTS WAVE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE
THE NEXT ONE IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD
AND WESTERN NEB. KUDX RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY GENERALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS
THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS EVENING AND THE NEXT ONE PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. A BREAK IN THE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY BY EARLY
EVENING AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE WAVE FOR A WHILE...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. A COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...COOLEST OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND USUAL VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR STRONG
STORMS. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FLAT UPPER RIDGE/THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. RESULT WILL BE DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
SPIRITED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BRINGING A SHARP COLD FRONT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SMALL POPS LOOK REASONABLE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 617 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






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