Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 252028
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS AWAY AND LEAVES BEHIND
MODEST GRADIENT. ST/SC SLOWLY ERODING AS SOLAR INSOLATION PEAKS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ENHANCED.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BUILD
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AS WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 145KT JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED ON SATURATION...BUT ONCE
RADARS LIGHT UP...SHOULD SEE A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.
1-2 INCHES SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE DIURNAL EFFECTS TURN OFF
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A
SUSTAINED BAND CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. FURTHER WEST
LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOWER POPS...BUT SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THUS HIGHER POPS THERE.
BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BEHIND WARM FRONT
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN
CHANGING TO -SN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG FORCING/ORGANIZATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY TO WRN SD...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WRN SD...AND
ACROSS THE BLKHLS AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13



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