Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 122155

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
255 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with a trof across
the East Coast, and large ridge across the western CONUS. Strong
upper shortwave is currently just topping the ridge across
Alberta. Skies are mostly clear across SD, with some smoke in the
southern Black Hills and along the eastern foothills. At the
surface, low pressure is located across south central Canada, with
the warm front through the eastern Dakotas. Temperatures at 2pm are
very mild, in the 50s and low 60s, and winds are out of the west
at 10 to 20 mph.

Another fast-moving shortwave will push through the Northern
Plains tonight. Models remain in good agreement with this system,
which looks very similar to the one Sunday night/Monday morning.
CONSMOS is showing advisory criteria winds for much of the western
SD plains, but NAM and GFS forecast soundings are showing 50+ kt
winds mixing down again, especially just east of the Black Hills.
This is supported by another 5-6 mb pressure difference over the
Hills with 40-50 kt boundary layer winds. The strongest winds are
expected to be after midnight into early Wednesday morning with
the strongest CAA and pressure rises. A High Wind Warning is in
effect from Sturgis to Rapid City and areas just east of the
Black Hills. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the rest of the SD
plains from late tonight through late Wednesday afternoon. Highs
Wednesday will be cooler, in the 40s.

Yet another shortwave will cross the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air and gusty
winds. Winds on Thursday don`t look quite as strong as
tonight/Wednesday; however, a little more moisture is associated
with this system, bringing a chance for some light snow. Highs
Thursday will be mainly in the 30s.

The upper ridge axis will shift over the region Friday, as a
stronger wave moves over the Pacific Northwest. Highs Friday will
warm back into the 50s, but chances for precip will increase Friday
night into Saturday as the wave crosses the Rockies. Highs this
weekend look to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.


.FIRE WEATHER...A strong cold front will move through the Black
Hills area late this evening. Northwest winds across the southern
Black Hills will increase around midnight to 20 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph. These winds will persist through Wednesday
morning, then begin to slowly decrease by late morning to early
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday, with highs
only in the lower 40s. Minimum afternoon RHs will fall to around
30 to 35 percent across the southern Black Hills.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1041 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Areas of MVFR VSBY in smoke will continue along and near the
southeastern and eastern slopes of the Black Hills until the wind
becomes northwesterly this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through tonight. Strong and gusty west to northwest
winds will develop over western South Dakota late this evening
and will continue into Wednesday morning.


SD...Wind Advisory from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ to 3 PM MST /4 PM CST/
     Wednesday for SDZ042>044-046-047-049.

     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM MST Wednesday for

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon MST Wednesday
     for SDZ026-031-072-073.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 3 PM MST Wednesday for SDZ026-031-072-



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