Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 132308
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COOL FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO
SOUTHWEST MN. FRONT BEING PUSHED BY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CWA TONIGHT WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. ROBUST...FOR
SUMMER...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES 10-20F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FROST OVER THE HIGHER HILLS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND TD/S IN THE UPPER 30S DEVELOP NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH OVER NORTHEAST
WY SHOULD ARREST TEMPERATURE FALLS OVER THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TROF TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE HERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CLIP
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING THE
PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME 60S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CU WL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLR SKIES THRU THE
FCST PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
AS WELL...THEN INCRS TO 10-20KT MON MRNG AHD OF STG SFC HI PRES
PUSHING SWD FM CAN INTO WRN DKTS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55






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