Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 160441

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1041 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Strong upper ridging is building across the western CONUS with
surface high pressure in control of the Great Plains into the Great
Basin. Quiet weather pattern will bring dry weather through the
entire work week. A series of upper waves moving onshore the
Canadian Pacific coast will weaken the ridge enough for a transition
to zonal flow through Monday and Tuesday. Strong warm air advection
over the western CONUS will quickly push into the area tonight.
Highs Monday will be in the 70s across the plains and 60s over the
Black Hills. Tuesday will bring warmer conditions with locations
across central South Dakota reaching into the low 80s. Warm and dry
conditions will continue through Friday. Models are suggesting an
upper trough crossing the area toward next weekend which may bring
some some precip to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1040 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue through the
period. Windy conditions will develop over far northwestern South
Dakota on Monday afternoon.


Issued at 227 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High pressure will bring warm and dry weather this week. Low
relative humidities and gusty winds at some locations are expected
Monday through Friday. The driest day will be Tuesday with
minimum relative humidities in the 12 to 20 percent range and
gusty winds at some locations. This may result in an elevated risk
of critical fire weather conditions.




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