Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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868
FXUS63 KUNR 231626
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1026 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.Update...
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor shows upper low over far srn SASK wth relatively dry
sw flow into the nrn plains. A short wave is noted along the UT/CO
border and is ejecting newd. Given lack of
moisture/instability...any aftn tstms look to be confined to the
BLKHLS and far nwrn SD per high res models. Only appreciable
change to the fcst was to increase winds for most areas today
given the dry sw flow mixing towards the sfc...as well as raise
high temps a few degrees in nern WY and the BLKHLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Current surface map places slow moving cold front across the
eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska. Shower/thunderstorm
activity coming to an end across south central South Dakota. Large
scale subsidence behind departing shortwave is bringing mostly
clear skies. Upper low located across southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan will keep southwest flow aloft across the
forecast area. With relatively dry low/mid levels today, most of
the area will remain dry. Exception will be across the Black Hills
where forecast soundings show 500J/KG MLCAPE. Also small threat
for a few thunderstorms across far northwest South Dakota this
evening. Low level moisture returns on Tuesday as boundary layer
winds turn to the southeast. Models in decent agreement with fast
moving shortwave crossing the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. With 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE and sufficient shear, a few
severe storms possible from northeast Wyoming into southwest and
south central South Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon
May 23 2016

Persistent upper level trough over the northwest CONUS will keep
active southwest flow across the Northern Plains through the
Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will eject out of
the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast from Wednesday through the weekend. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages, with highs each day in the mid 60s to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued
At 245 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the area through
Tuesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
across the Black Hills and far northwest South Dakota this afternoon
through this evening.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Johnson
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15



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