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000
FXUS63 KUNR 252146
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BANDS OF THICK CIRRUS HAVE
SLOWED THE WARM UP TODAY ESP EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH BUT WITH LOW
TO MID LEVEL WAA INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS KEEPS THE
WESTERN RIDGE A LITTLE BROADER...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT POKING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EC HAS STRONGER TROFING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT
BOTH HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15