Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 300524
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MT/WY...CREATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER WESTERN SD. A MINI
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATED SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH HAVE SINCE
DECREASED. TEMPS ARE WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

WAVE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL END EARLY. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AS GUIDANCE HAS
A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE MOST EFFECTIVE. MODELS HAVE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO TRENDED COOLER WITH THE HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL SD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THIS AREA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. ALSO COOLED LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LEE TROF ADVANCING FROM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROF PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE ONTO THE SD PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE ST MAY APPROACH THE
KRAP TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON






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