National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 011711
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BASED ON 12Z
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO...THE CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR ISOLD-SCT TSRA THIS
AFTN. THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS DO
NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WAVES OVER MT/NEAR
CAN BORDER SLIDING SE. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED TODAY W/
DIURNAL HEATING...AND WITH WAVES CROSSING THE ARE THIS AFTN/EVNG
-TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ISOLATED IN COVERAGE EXCEPT BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE BLKHLS. LL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO SVR WX NOT
EXPECTED THOUGH A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SATURDAY...BUT STILL A
SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT LACKING WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE CWA WILL KEEP
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO
BLKHLS SAT AFT/EARLY EVNG. TEMPS WILL REACH 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS ON SUNDAY. WEAK FORCING WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME AND EMBEDDED TROF/WEAK LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LCL
MVFR VSBY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office