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000
FXUS63 KUNR 111626
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NWRN ND
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND INTO SWRN WY. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER NEB/WRN KS. AN E-W BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THAT WERE ISSUED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. HAVE ADDED THE RAPID CITY AREA TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. REGIONAL TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THERE
ISN/T A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL
BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. THE SNOW WILL END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 30 AND LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. STRONG BL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY DUE TO STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS BY MIDDAY GIVEN FAIRLY WARM TEMPS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVES THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NWRLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. FAST MOVING RIDGE PASSES OVER ON SUNDAY
BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE SKIES
CLEAR...EXPECT SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING EVAPORATES THE
MELTING SNOW. THUS...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LCL -SHRASN OVER THE BLKHLS. LCL MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...SPCLY FOR THE BLKHLS...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...BUNKERS