324
FXUS64 KEWX 140628
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
128 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- New Daily/Monthly High Temperature Records Expected Today

- Extreme Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Remain in Effect for Today

- Heat Advisory Likely for parts of our area for Thursday

The well advertised early season heat wave peaks today with upper
level ridging and lower level thermal ridging in place. Although
lower level moisture in the form of higher dewpoints has returned to
much of our area, strong heating should allow an unseasonably warm
airmass to mix to the surface. In addition, the dryline mixes back
east into parts of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande
regions. High temperatures of 100 to 112 are expected today, except
upper 90s along the US 77 corridor to near the Coastal Plains. The
hottest temperatures will be from the San Antonio area across the
Winter Garden Region to the Rio Grande and also across the Llano
Plateau. Will maintain the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
for today. New high temperature records both for today the 14th and
the month of May will be established, especially at the I-35 sites.

The upper level ridge drifts to the east, the lower level thermal
ridge weakens, and lower level moisture increases tonight into
Thursday. These lead to "cooler" high temperatures most areas on
Thursday as mixing will be somewhat weaker than today. The exception
being out west where the dryline mixes into the Hill Country,
Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains. A Heat Advisory will likely
be issued for parts of our area for Thursday with the favored area
being the Winter Garden Region to the Rio Grande.

Due to unseasonably hot temperatures, take precautions. Drink plenty
of fluids, wear light weight and light colored clothing, take
frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments, and
check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Potentially historic early season heatwave continues into the
  weekend with multiple records in jeopardy of being broken.

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts through the upcoming
  weekend.

This potentially historic heat wave continues all the way through
the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Air temperatures are
forecast to come down a few degrees each day however temperatures
will still be 15 degrees above normal. Even though temperatures
decrease slightly the increased moisture(dewpoints in the 70s)
coming in via southerly/southeasterly flow across the local area will
keep feels like temperatures as high as our previous actual air
temperatures. All that to say, is initially we will have a dry heat
before the heat eventually becomes muggy and possibly even downright
oppressive across the area. Heat index values of 100-110 are
expected across the entire area and throughout the long term. this
pushes heat risk categories into the high to even extreme category.
If this trend continues we may need to extend the heat advisory. No
matter how you slice it, it is going to be a very hot work week
across all of South Central Texas that likely extends into the
weekend and possibly even early next week. Please make sure you and
your loved ones have a way to stay cool during this early season
heatwave. Additional heat safety information and resources can be
found at the following websites:
www.heat.gov and www.weather.gov/safety/heat

Regarding precip, models continue to differ on timing and how much
rain some areas could receive. What models are starting to agree on
is what days would have the best chances for showers and storms.
These are mainly late Saturday, late Sunday and again on Monday.
However these will be highly conditional based on previous outflow
boundaries from each evenings previous storms. Models are showing
more precip chances being possible but this is still a ways out so
be sure to keep monitoring future forecasts as details become
clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Wednesday evening.
Lower level profiles show moisture quality for some IFR/MVFR CIGs
late tonight into early morning. However, expect it will remain
sufficiently mixed to go with SCT. Will monitor for later mention of
CIGs. S to SE winds 5 to 10 KTs prevail overnight into morning, then
increase to 10 to 15 KTs by midday with a few gusts to 24 KTs
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The other thing to speak about for the next several days is fire
weather concerns across the local area. Elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are forecasted from Wednesday through Sunday
as minimum relative humidity values range from the single digits
along the Rio Grande Plains to mid 20s along and west of Highway 281.

&&


.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE May 13 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)

         WED       THU       FRI       SAT
        05/14     05/15     05/16     05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS    96/2003   96/2003   97/2018*  97/2018
ATT    97/2022   98/1925   99/2022*  99/2022
SAT    97/2022*  98/2022   97/2022* 100/2022
DRT   103/2003  102/2022  107/2013  105/2013

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS   102 ... set on 05/07/1998
ATT   104 ... set on 05/24/1925
SAT   104 ... set on 05/31/2004
DRT   112 ... set on 05/26/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             104  73 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 104  71 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    104  71 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport           104  73  99  73 /   0  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          109  78 106  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       104  73  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport            106  71 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       104  71 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  72  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      104  73 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          106  73 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-
Zavala.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-
Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for
De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...04