Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
401 FXUS64 KEWX 191125 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 525 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch is in effect for Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor from Wednesday night until Friday morning due to the potential of heavy rain and localized flooding - Some strong to isolated severe storms also possible Wednesday evening through Thursday morning - Another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday. Higher uncertainty for this round, however, weather models suggest for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor to get impacted the most. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Latest satellite images show low level clouds developing and spreading across the Coastal Plains, along portions of the I-35 Corridor, and parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau. This trend likely continues overnight through Wednesday morning. Overnight lows are forecast to stay between the lower and upper 60s across most locations with even lower 70s over parts of the Rio Grande. There is a very moist airmass in place under the influence of the returning/southerly flow. Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to be very close to even matching (saturation) the air temperatures. Therefore, can`t rule out some drizzle/light rain overnight/early Wednesday over some areas of South Central Texas. By the way, patchy dense fog could also develop across portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. It is hard to pinpoint the particular locations to get foggy conditions, however, several models are in good agreement over the Southern Edwards Plateau. As the day progresses, clouds are going to try to break with mostly cloudy skies forecast across the local area. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 70s across Val Verde County to the Southern Edwards Plateau to mid 80s elsewhere. While this is happening, an upper level storm system over Southern California moves over the Four Corners region and a low level jet starts to shape up and strengthen late Wednesday afternoon into the night. Mid to upper level pulses of energy are forecast to move across the northern portion of the local area in combination of precipitable water values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches. These values fall within the +2SD with could lead to heavy rain and localized flooding. Therefore, the reason of the Flood Watch for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. Based on latest guidance, pockets of heavy rain could be affecting the northern portion of Maverick county and could be added to the Flood Watch during the day on Wednesday if models continue to trend. For this rain event, we are forecasting 1 to 3 inches within the watch area with isolated 6 inches. Outside of the watch area, locations are forecast to get 1 inch or less. In addition to the heavy rain, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail. The highest probabilities for large hail exist across Val Verde county and parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau from 8 PM Wednesday to about 4 AM Thursday. Moderate to locally heavy rain continues throughout the day on Thursday and shifts to the east-northeast as the upper level trough axis pushes across the local area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A frontal passage is forecast to push across the local area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast ahead of it. As the front pushes across South Central Texas, rain chances come to an end from northwest to southeast from late Friday morning through Friday evening. There is a slight chance for rain mainly across the Coastal Plains Friday night due to some disagreement between global models. In the wake of the front, a cooler airmass spreads across the local area on Friday with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Saturday`s highs very similar to those on Friday in addition for some areas to see a shower or two. Another round of heavy rain is possible for Sunday night into Monday as another upper level storm system and a cold front affect the local area. There are some timing disagreements with this round, however, there is a fair agreement on the potential locations to get affected which are the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and portions of the I-35 Corridor. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 MVFR CIGs lift to VFR midday into the early afternoon. Patchy IFR CIGs, -DZ, and BR are possible this morning and ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA and ISOLD TSRA are possible this afternoon. While PROBs are too to mention, at this time will monitor for later updates. Higher PROBS at KDRT this evening through tonight and have maintained mention there. Higher PROBS spread to the I-35 sites overnight into Thursday and have maintained mention there. S to SE winds 6 to 12 KTs prevail with a few gusts to 25 KTs midday through evening. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Record Rainfall Thursday 11/20 AUS 1.24"/2009 ATT 1.63"/2009 SAT 1.15"/2009 DRT 0.20"/1984 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 84 70 80 66 / 30 40 70 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 69 81 65 / 30 40 70 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 68 82 66 / 30 40 80 70 Burnet Muni Airport 81 66 73 62 / 30 60 80 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 67 77 60 / 40 90 90 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 68 79 64 / 30 50 80 80 Hondo Muni Airport 84 67 81 63 / 30 50 90 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 68 83 65 / 30 40 70 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 68 83 66 / 30 20 50 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 70 81 67 / 30 50 80 70 Stinson Muni Airport 87 71 83 68 / 30 40 80 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...04