Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
247 FXUS64 KEWX 111117 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 517 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures up and down several times over the next seven days. - The only mentionable (>15%) chance for rain will be Sunday for now over the Rio Grande Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1212 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 An upper level ridge over the west coast is producing northwesterly flow over Texas this morning. A cold front has moved to the coast. The pressure gradient has loosened and the northerly winds have become light across South-Central Texas. Drier air has moved in with dewpoint temperatures 10-15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The surface high will move to the east today turning the low level flow to the east and high temperatures will yo-yo down today to the 60s and lower 70s. As the high moves farther east winds will shift around to the southeast and south. The yo-yo will swing back up with lows Friday about five degrees warmer than today and highs around 10 degrees warmer reaching the middle to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1212 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Southerly flow in the low level will continue Friday night and lows Saturday will be warmer again. Saturday will start cloudy over the eastern half of the area and this will result in high temperatures being a couple of degrees lower than Friday. Sunday another cold front will will move through and there may be enough moisture in the Rio Grande region to generate some showers or even a thunderstorm, but chances are only 20%-40% during the day. There will be breezy northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler again Sunday and Monday. Tuesday an upper level shortwave trough will move over the region. Today the blended model is dry as this feature passes. However, the GFS generates showers Tuesday and Wednesday. We will have to wait for further guidance to see which solution pans out. Rain or no rain, temperatures will warm over the last couple of days of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR flight conditions primarily prevail. Skies remain mainly clear through at least the beginning of the overnight hours for all locations. Low clouds and fog then develop early to mid- morning Friday across the coastal plains. The low clouds could reach as far west at the I-35 terminals. For the 30 hour TAF at KSAT, have inserted IFR conditions beginning at 12 UTC Friday. For KAUS and in the 24 hour TAF for KSSF, introduced sct low clouds beyond 10/11 UTC Friday. Winds remain light with the directions turning more southerly by this afternoon for most locations and east-southeaterly closer to the Rio Grande, including KDRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 46 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 46 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 44 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 49 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...62