969
FXUS64 KEWX 301736
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and evening over
  the Rio Grande Plains that could lead to minor flooding.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy conditions to
  the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.

- Low chances for showers and storms persists through mid to late
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Regional radar imagery shows showers and isolated thunderstorms
increasing in coverage over south Texas. This are expected to work
their way into our region, particularly south and west of the I-10
Corridor, this afternoon and evening. With PWATs nearing 2" and
ample moisture through the column, the ingredients are in place for
locally heavy rain today. The remnants of Barry have moved inland
over Mexico and moisture has already started to work its way
northward into northern Mexico and south Texas early this afternoon.
Ridging is now situated to our east, and on the southern periphery
of this high, southeasterly flow in the mid and upper levels is
allowing the remnants of Barry to work into northern Mexico. Some
isolated thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, but the
primary concern will be tropical-like downpours which could lead to
localized flooding. Afternoon highs should be a bit cooler due to
increased cloud cover, mostly in the lower to middle 90s. On
Tuesday, expect a similar pattern with tropical moisture working
through the western half of the region, particularly the Rio Grande
Plains and portions of the Edwards Plateau. Afternoon temperatures
will struggle to climb out of the 80s out west of I-10, but east of
there, particularly up towards Austin, temperatures should climb
into the mid to perhaps upper 90s today and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

By mid-week, southeasterly mid-level flow looks to continue on the
backside of the Subtropical Ridge to our east. This should aid in
continued shower and storm chances, but only about 20-30% and
primarily over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains through
Friday. Beyond that, temperatures look to climb back into the mid to
upper 90s and even above the century mark this weekend as Subtropical
Ridging amplifies just in time for the Holiday. Be sure to take
frequent breaks if you plan on being outdoors as temperatures climb
and heat indices rise.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions are forecasted for the Austin, San Antonio, and Del
Rio airport terminals for most of the forecast period. There are low
to medium chances for showers and storms across the San Antonio area
airports mainly during the mid to later afternoon and early evening.
Model guidance are suggesting for cigs to remain VFR, however, if
thunderstorm activity affect any of the sites, cigs could lower to
MVFR for short periods of times. The time frame for the thunderstorm
activity is from 22Z today (Monday) to 02Z Tuesday. Continued with
the TEMPO groups for KSAT and KSSF to account for the above
mentioned storm activity. Otherwise, southerly winds of 10 to 12
knots with gusts up to 22 knots prevail across the local airports
through mid evening before speeds come down to 10 knots or less.
There could be a period of MVFR cigs for KDRT around midnight
tonight and last for several hours and have added lower cigs to
account for this trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  90  72  91 /  40  40  50  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  88  72  89 /  30  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  95  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  91  75  93 /  20  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  92  75  94 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...17