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909
FXUS64 KEWX 241130 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Main concern today will be convection. Expecting to see scattered
convection developing this afternoon and continuing into the
evening. Current VFR cigs (MVFR at KSSF) will prevail outside
convection through the end of this forecast period. Could see a
couple of hours with MVFR cigs through 15Z. With additional mid and
high level clouds tonight will only mention SCT after 07Z for the
I-35 terminals. If we see fewer mid/high level clouds tonight then
MVFR cigs are more likely. Light E/SE winds around 5 knots this
morning will increase to 9-13 knots after 16Z. Winds will be stronger
and gusty in or near SHRA`s/TSRA`s. Currently looks like the
greatest chance for convection impacting the terminals will be during
the 21Z to 03Z period. Once convection initiates then timing issues
can be fine tuned and forecast updated as necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Lingering convection across portions of the Hill Country and Rio
Grande plains continues to slowly weaken this morning. Given radar
trends and lightning data, we expect the weakening trend to continue
over the next several hours. Elsewhere, a few showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the middle Texas coast. Some of this
activity may drift northward into the coastal plains through sunrise
and we will keep a low chance for rain in the forecast early this
morning.

A weak upper trough moving in from the northwest along with remnant
outflow boundaries and the sea breeze will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to all of south central Texas today. Hi-res models
tend to favor convection across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country this afternoon and early evening. As the upper trough moves
through late today into tonight, the flow aloft should be aligned for
this activity to drift east and southeast into portions of the I-35
corridor, mainly south of Austin. With forecast soundings once again
showing a deep inverted-V profile, some gusty winds will certainly
be possible. In addition, any slow-moving storms will be capable of
producing some pockets of locally heavy rainfall. Highs today will be
at or slightly above normal, with highs generally in the 90s, except
near 100 along the Rio Grande.

With the weak upper trough slowly moving through during the
overnight hours, some convection will likely persist well into early
Sunday morning. As of now, this appears to be favored across portions
of the Rio Grande plains. With this in mind we will keep rain
chances in the forecast through tonight for locations generally
along and south of I-10.

As the mid and upper level flow transitions to a more northwesterly
direction on Sunday, moisture levels will begin to decrease from
northwest to southeast. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity
will be favored generally along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Temperatures will also warm a degree or two with highs in the mid 90s
to near 105. A few spots east of I-35 may briefly reach Heat Advisory
levels in the late afternoon.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Mid and upper level ridging will build across the region during the
early portion of next week. This will bring warming temperatures to
the region Monday through Wednesday, with Monday and Tuesday
currently looking like the warmest days of the forecast period.
Given warming temperatures and persistent southeasterly flow in the
low-levels, heat index values may climb into the Advisory range early
next week.

Confidence in the medium range models in the handling of a cold front
during the middle of the upcoming work week continues to remain low
at this time. For now, we will continue to forecast above normal
temperatures through the period. Most areas should remain dry, except
for possibly the coastal plains where some afternoon convection could
develop along the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  78 100  79 101 /  30  10  20  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  77  98  78 100 /  30  10  20  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  97  77 100 /  30  10  20  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            93  75  97  76  99 /  30  10  10  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  77 102  78 105 /  40  20   0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  77  99  78 101 /  20  10  20  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             98  76 101  77 102 /  40  30  20  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  77  98  77 100 /  30  10  20  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  77  99  78 101 /  40  10  40  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  78  98  79 101 /  40  20  20  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           96  78  98  79 100 /  40  20  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...10
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt