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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210006
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
706 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are moving toward the north east of AUS. These
storms should stay east of AUS as they continue for the next hour or
two. All terminals are VFR at this time. MVFR ceilings will develop
in the Austin and San Antonio areas later this evening and continue
overnight. A cold front will move through the region early Monday and
showers and thunderstorms Monday morning to Austin and San Antonio
and a chance at DRT. Rain chances will end by around noon. VFR
conditions will prevail Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The main story of the short term will be the cold front expected
through tonight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of the front another
warm afternoon is producing more record high temperatures. Just like
yesterday the warm afternoon temperatures and abundant moisture could
spark off a few late afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the
I-35 corridor. The Texas Tech WRF and last few runs of the HRRR have
consistently shown this activity along and east of I-35 late this
afternoon into the evening hours.

Based on the latest high resolution models the front should arrive
across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country early Monday morning
(between 2-4am), moving into the I-35 corridor between 5-7am, and
then south through the Coastal Plains by 10am. While the best upper
level jet dynamics will remain north of the area across North Texas
and Oklahoma, where SPC has an enhanced risk of severe weather,
decent CAPE and modest shear will create a small window for some
strong, and possibly a severe storm or two across the area. The main
threats will be some hail (best chances across the Hill Country early
Monday morning), and damaging winds (anywhere along the broken line
of storms). Because of this SPC does have parts of the Hill Country
and Coastal Plains in either a Day 1 or Day 2 Marginal risk. High
resolution models depict a broken line of showers and storms moving
through the area. Any of these could produce a brief heavier shower,
but general rainfall amounts should be light. The time of day (early
morning through morning hours) should also help keep the severe risk
down to just the few strong to severe storms like we saw with the
last front.

The front will quickly clear the area through the day with drier and
cooler air filtering in behind it. Sunny skies should return by
Monday afternoon with winds out of the north between 10-15 mph. Highs
tomorrow should hold in the upper 70s to lower 80s, a good 10-15
degrees cooler than highs today. Because of the drier air and
decent post frontal winds elevated fire weather will be a concern
across the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau during the
afternoon hours on Monday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be mostly sunny and seasonable
across South Central Texas. Afternoon highs will be near normal for
mid to late October in the upper 70s and lower 80s. While Tuesday
will see light winds and dry air remaining in place, southerly flow
will make a return on Wednesday hastening the return of Gulf of
Mexico moisture ahead of the next cold front.

Models are still in vast disagreement with the timing of the large
upper trough and cold front for Thursday. The GFS remains the most
progressive of the models having a large upper trough across the
Plains and a cold front that arrives mid-day on Thursday. The 12z
ECMWF and 12z Canadian continued the trend of their 00z runs and
remain deeper and slower with the trough and thereby are slower with
the front. The Canadian is a nice compromise between the extremes of
the GFS and ECMWF at this point, bringing the front through Thursday
evening, with the ECMWF moving it across the area Thursday night into
Friday. Regardless of the timing the front, which looks stronger than
the front moving through tonight, should bring another good shot of
rain for most areas along with much cooler temperatures. Highs Friday
should struggle to get out of the mid 60s, and by Saturday they will
only reach into the upper 60s to near 70. This means overnight lows
in the 40s for Friday through Sunday morning. One important note
about the ECMWF and Canadian solutions is they keep the upper trough
across north Texas into the weekend, which if it verifies would keep
rain chances around behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  78  53  80  54 /  80  40   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  78  49  80  51 /  70  40   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  80  51  80  52 /  60  50   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  76  50  77  51 /  90  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  86  52  84  56 /  20  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  77  49  78  52 /  90  30   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  84  50  83  54 /  50  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  79  51  80  52 /  70  50   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  79  50  80  52 /  60  60   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  81  53  80  55 /  60  40   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  81  53  81  55 /  50  40   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt