Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 190538
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.AVIATION /06Z TAFs/...
Scattered clouds have already begun to develop across the I-35
corridor and should continue to fill in with MVFR decks impacting
AUS/SAT/SSF by 08z. As we have seen the last few mornings ceilings
should lift and scatter out to VFR around 15z. Winds will generally
continue out of the south and southeast between 07 and 12 knots
overnight, increasing to 12 to 14 knots during the day on Monday. A
few gusts will be possible, especially late in the afternoon into the
evening as the sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
High pressure is centered over the SW half of TX today, further
prolonging the long dry spell and elevated heat indices. We`re
expecting to see a westward shift of the H5 level ridge tonight into
Monday, and this could more Gulf modified air into the I-35 Corridor
areas with some isolated convection Monday afternoon over parts of
the Coastal Prairies. Highs and heat index values are expected to be
near persistence, but ambient temps east of I-35 could drop a degree
or two over eastern counties. A sea-breeze could become more
prominent as 700 mb winds become more in line with the direction
of the surface to 850 mb winds.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
While the westward shift in the H5 ridge could help with slightly
lower high temps, it`s position doesn`t shift enough to bring any
meaningful cooling or rain chances. The axis of the ridge strengthens
a bit over OK Tuesday, and that shift keeps the deeper moisture over
LA from migrating west in the 700 mb flow. Thus will round out the 7
day forecast with more persistence blended into the blended guidance,
which tries to drag us back to our climatological norms for max
temps late in the forecast period. The ECM remains the model choice
until it isn`t, as the GFS has been trying too hard to generate ridge
weaknesses in the 5-10 day time-frame. There is a legitimate chance
for a mid level tropical feature to move up the western Gulf coast
and potentially impact South TX Thursday through Saturday, but the
GFS runs are trending drier as the time gets closer to the present;
thus might as well stick with the ECM solution that keeps the mid-
level feature far enough offshore to be of a minimal impact.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  78 100  77 100 /  -    0  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  76  99  75  99 /  -    0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  76 100  74 100 /  -    0  10   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  78 102  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  77  98  76  98 /   0   0  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            101  76 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  76  99  74  98 /  -    0  10   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  77  98  76  98 /  20   0  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  78  99  76  99 /  -    0  -    0  -
Stinson Muni Airport          102  78 101  76 100 /  -    0  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...04


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