Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 211725
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
CIGs have been slow to dissipate over KAUS this morning as IFR is
still being observed there. However, nearby sites are reporting MVFR
or better so begun the 18Z TAF above IFR and believe that this trend
will continue to VFR shortly into the TAF period. There is a slight
possibility for TSRA this afternoon to encroach upon the KSAT/KSSF
terminals but models continue to trend drier and confidence is quite
low for bringing this activity to the TAF, thus left it out but there
could be potential for amendments in the afternoon hours if
development does occur. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to
develop again overnight for all sites and around sunrise for KDRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR ceilings are in place at all sites this morning and should
see these continuing through the 17z hour before VFR returns. In
addition to the ceilings, patchy fog will also be possible. A few
sites around the region are reporting -RA, but this is sprinkles at
best and not worth mentioning in any of the TAFS. There is a better
chance for showers this afternoon and will mention VCSH. This may
need to be bumped up to VCTS if thunderstorm coverage is expected to
increase. Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings is expected tonight
after 06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Mid and upper level ridging builds slight today with little if any
forcing aloft. The airmass remains moist and with some residual
surface boundaries from Sunday and heating, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Showers and thunderstorms
developing over the Serranias del Burro this afternoon could move
into areas west of Highway 83 tonight. The ridge builds more
strongly on Tuesday increasing convective inhibition. Hi-res CAMs
models indicate a potential for showers and thunderstorms to come out
of Western Texas to portions of the Rio Grande in the Val Verde
County area. Some models also show development near the Coastal
Plains into Central Texas. Ongoing forecasts mention this and will
maintain it in this forecast.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Mid and upper level ridging continues through Sunday with a drying
trend and warm mid level temperatures serving to inhibit convection.
Cannot rule out very isolated showers and thunderstorms near the
Coastal Plains to along the highway 77 corridor and across the lower
Pecos Valley of Val Verde county each day, however, POPs are too low
to mention. The exception being, slight chance POPs for eastern areas
on Saturday. A warming trend is expected with highs back around 100
along the Rio Grande Saturday and Sunday. Of note, ECMWF develops a
low pressure system at the surface and aloft over the central Gulf of
Mexico late this week, then moves it to the Sabine Pass area while
deepening it Saturday into Sunday with a trend to bringing it a
little further west with each model run. For now, any impacts would
be to maintain a dry and very warm forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  90  71  91  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  90  69  91  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  90  69  90  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            68  88  68  89  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  90  72  92  72 /  30  20  -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  89  69  90  69 /  10  20  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             70  91  70  91  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  90  69  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  91  71  91  70 /  10  20  -   10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  90  72  91  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           71  92  71  91  70 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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