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000
FXUS64 KEWX 252348
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
548 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION... /00 TAFS/
Conditions should deteriorate quickly to IFR and LIFR for the San
Antonio area this evening with a later lowering of cigs in the Austin
and Del Rio area. SAT/SSF shoudl get a good evening episode of
drizzle followed by subsidence, so a lowering to VLIFR is predicted
by around 08Z or so. There`s a chance that AUS and DRT could drop to
1/4 mile VSBYS as well, but the lower residence time of drizzle and
faster return over northwest winds have this forecast thinking more
of a brief period of 1/2 mile vsbys. All sites should see gradual
improvements after daybreak and a VFR sky by 16Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
As expected, cloud cover has been increasing across the area from
west to east this morning and early afternoon as the southern stream
shortwave trough continues to move through northern Mexico. High
temperatures have exceeded expectations a bit this afternoon, with
highs now on track to reach the mid to upper 60s for most locations.
A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon across southern
portions of the region. Shower chances (and possibly a thunderstorm
or two) will increase later this evening and into the early
overnight period as isentropic ascent increases, mainly for
locations along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. QPF should
remain below a quarter inch for most locations, with higher amounts
possible for far eastern portions of South Central Texas (Lee,
Fayette, Lavaca, DeWitt Counties). Areas of fog and drizzle will
also be likely late tonight and into early Sunday morning, with some
dense fog possible.

The trough axis and attendant weak Pacific cold front will move
through the region by mid to late Sunday morning and drier air will
filter into the region in its wake. This will allow for clearing
from northwest to southeast, and by Sunday afternoon clear skies
should prevail with highs in the low to mid 70s and a light north
northwest breeze. Clear skies will continue through Sunday night,
but some residual moisture will keep overnight lows a couple degrees
above normal (lows in the mid 40s for most locations).

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Zonal flow is forecast for Monday ahead of the next upper level
system to affect the area. Expect plenty of sunshine for most of the
day and high temperatures in the 70s. By late Monday afternoon into
the evening, increased moisture and the set up of a low level jet
ahead of the next Pacific front and associated upper level
disturbance may result in showers across the Rio Grande and Edwards
Plateau Monday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
overnight into Tuesday morning as the Pacific front moves across the
area. Rainfall amounts could range from one quarter to three quarter
of an inch for the most parts. Weather conditions begin to improve on
Tuesday morning from west to east with some lingering showers and an
isolated thunder across the far east of South Central Texas mid to
late afternoon.

Cool and pleasant weather conditions are anticipated for Wednesday
with highs in the mid 60s and on track with climate values for this
time of the year.

Chances for rain return late Thursday into Friday as another Pacific
front and upper level disturbance moves over the region. At this
time, the medium-range models are trying to get a handle on it with
the GFS being the faster while the ECMWF solution comes about 6
hours behind (based on main trough axis). Also, the GFS is less
aggressive with QPF while the ECMWF brings the potential for more
rainfall accumulations(one quarter to an inch more over some spots).

Overall, this system is going to help some areas to get rainfall
amounts ranging from one quarter to an inch with isolated spots
getting higher amounts just to help the drought some (mainly east of
I-35).

Dry and a warming trends is expected for the upcoming weekend as an
upper level ridge builds across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  73  45  71  51 /  30   0   0   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  73  44  72  50 /  40   0   0   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     55  74  45  72  51 /  50   0   0   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            51  70  42  70  49 /  10   0   0   0  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  76  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  71  43  70  50 /  30   0   0   0  40
Hondo Muni Airport             54  76  45  76  50 /  10   0   0   0  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        55  73  44  72  50 /  50   0   0   0  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  73  46  72  51 /  60  20   0   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  75  47  73  52 /  30   0   0   0  40
Stinson Muni Airport           57  76  48  74  53 /  40   0   0   0  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...04