453
FXUS64 KEWX 100553
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier today with light concentrations of Saharan dust bringing
  slightly hazy conditions.
- 20-40% chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms over the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A weak col region aloft will be in place today, along with a slight
drier column of air developing. Much less coverage, if any, of
showers and storms is expected across the region today. Some light
concentrations of Saharan dust may result in slightly haze conditions
today.

A compact upper level low across northern Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon,
Mexico today is forecast to drift northwest up the Rio Grande
tonight and open near and south of the region on Friday. A slight
uptick in precipitable water and this feature could generate very
isolated storms Friday afternoon out of the Coastal Plains and into
portions of the I-35 corridor, dissipating around or just west of the
I-35 corridor early evening Friday. A few CAMs are indicating this,
and again coverage would be very isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

An elongated weakness aloft is forecast to remain over central and
western areas of the CWA over the weekend. A pool of higher
precipitable water content off the Gulf if forecast to move back
into the area Saturday as well. This will allow for an uptick in
rain chances (20-40%) to return back to the region over the weekend.
Coverage should generally be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Early next week the western periphery of the subtropical ridge works
into areas east of I-35, however the weakness aloft remains situated
from west Texas south into the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande. The forecast calls for low chances (20%) of isolated showers
and storms across these western areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for all area terminals through this
cycle. There is a low chance for MVFR cigs around 09Z to 14Z along
the I-35 airports and decided to keep those probability out.
Otherwise, a south to southeast wind flow between 3 to 8 knots is
forecast overnight with speeds increasing mid to late morning into
the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots and
gusts of 20 to 25 knots are anticipated for most of the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  94  77 /   0   0  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  75  93  77 /   0   0  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  94  75 /   0   0  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  92  75 /   0   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  73  92  75 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  74  93  75 /   0   0  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  75  92  76 /  10   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  93  76 /   0   0  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  75  95  77 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17