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000
FXUS64 KEWX 161755
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1155 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.AVIATION...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, MVFR CIGs/patchy VSBYs remain
over eastern areas, including KAUS/KSAT/KSSF with VFR skies out west,
including KDRT. The strong frontal inversion will not allow for much
mixing due to the still weaker insolation this time of year and have
kept I-35 sites MVFR with northeasterly winds of 7 to 12 KTs through
this afternoon, although, did have a brief TEMPO of stratus becoming
SCT 21Z-23Z. CIGs lower to IFR as southerly flow increases over the
inversion with surface winds variable at 5 KTs or less this evening.
A lowering to LIFR is possible late this evening into the overnight,
though not included in the TAFs at this time. As a cold front moves
across a rapid erosion of the stratus is expected resulting in VFR
skies late tonight through Sunday with northwest to north winds of
7 to 15 KTs. Across the west, KDRT will remain VFR through Sunday,
except a brief period of IFR CIGs early in the overnight. Variable
winds of around 5 KTs become northwesterly 7 to 12 KTs overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

UPDATE...
Stronger CAA along with cloud coverage keeping temperatures down.
There was a wide spread in models as far as temperatures today, and
with areas in the northeast and along I-35 corridor remaining quite
cool this morning, have updated max temperatures as well as sky
conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

AVIATION...
/12z TAFS/
As 1155z, the only area terminal under MVFR cigs is KAUS. This
condition is expected to continue through at least 15z. A low cig
deck developed earlier this morning in the wake of a cold front and
continues to spread across the eastern part of South Central Texas
including the I-35 airports. Cigs will recover late this morning with
VFR conditions expected for the afternoon period. By early this
evening, moisture is expected to return for MVFR conditions late this
evening and then transitioning into IFR Sunday morning.

KDRT should remain VFR through the forecast period.

Winds will be from the north through midday today and then shift to
the southeast as a surface high pressure systems move northeastward.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A weak trough axis that passed through the Central Plains yesterday
sent a cold front south into Texas. This front is now south of San
Antonio and should make it through the CWA by sunrise. With little
forcing associated with this front it will quickly retreat as a warm
front across the western half of the CWA with southerly flow
returning to this area. Highs today will be widely different when
comparing the western and eastern CWA. Highs in the Rio Grande Plains
will be in the lower 80s with temperatures lowering into the lower
70s along Highway 281 and then into the upper 50s to near 60 east of
I35. The NAM continues to be even colder across the eastern counties,
but the RAP/HRRR all support the temperatures in the current
forecast.

Southerly flow returns to the entire area this evening before another
weak frontal boundary moves into the area by Sunday morning. Lows
tonight will be in the 50s. Some high-res model guidance is showing
some very light rain along this front as it reaches the southern CWA
and will show a 20 PoP from 6z to 18z Sunday. Any rainfall
accumulations should only average a few hundredths at most. North
winds will continue throughout Sunday, but temperatures will remain
mild with highs ranging from the middle 60s in the north of the
middle 70s in the south.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Another surge of colder air arrives Sunday night as a stronger
trough moves through the Central Plains. Highs Monday behind the
front will be in the 50s and 60s across the area. By late Monday
night, a strong trough axis will be moving into the southwest CONUS.
This set up will create decent overrunning on top of the frontal
layer with showers possible across the area Monday night through
Tuesday night. High temperatures Tuesday will be colder with the
cloud cover and rain with highs in the 40s and 50s. Cool weather
will continue through the remainder of the forecast period as north
flow is expected to be in place. Another trough axis will approach
the area from the west on Thursday bringing another chance of rain to
mainly the eastern counties. Highs Wednesday through Friday will
remain in the 50s and 60s across the area with lows in the 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  50  69  43  59 /  -   -    0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  50  69  42  60 /  -   -    0  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  51  71  43  62 /   0  -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            59  49  65  41  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  54  73  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        52  50  66  41  56 /  -   -    0  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  54  75  44  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        55  50  70  42  61 /  -   -    0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  52  70  45  62 /  -   10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  55  72  45  62 /   0  -    0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           62  55  74  45  64 /   0  -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...YB
Public Service/Data Collection...BMW