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289
FXUS64 KEWX 192339
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is moving through the region and winds have shifted
to the north at all airports except SSF. Winds should shift there
within the next hour or two. Light north winds will continue
overnight with VFR conditions through the evening. MVFR ceilings will
develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas after 09Z. Winds will
shift to the south and ceilings will lift to VFR by around noon
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Another warm afternoon is shaping up across South Central Texas with
record highs already broken at Austin Bergstrom and at Del Rio as of
2:30 pm. Zonal flow continues aloft with mostly clear skies leading
to the mid October warm up. The warming may be aided by the downslope
flow from the west and northwest winds across the Edwards Plateau
and some compressional warming ahead of a weak front that is
approaching the Hill Country. This first of 3 fronts this week will
do little to stop the heat, but it will dry out South Central Texas
temporarily this afternoon and tonight with lower relative humidity
values. High resolution models have picked up on a few isolated
showers possible late this evening into the overnight hours as the
front approaches the Coastal Plains, where more abundant moisture is
pooled.

Sunday will be another warm day with highs again approaching the 90s,
and topping out very near record highs for a second day in a row.
Models have backed off showing precipitation for Sunday afternoon,
but an isolated shower or pop up storm could be possible as winds
become southerly again and Gulf Moisture returns to the area.

The second front of the week, and the first precipitation maker will
arrive Sunday night into Monday morning as a large trough moves
across the Central Plains. Models have pushed back the timing of the
front with it arriving after midnight early Monday morning. There
should be enough moisture return and lift ahead of the front for
isolated showers, and a few thunderstorms developing ahead of a
broken line of storms along the front. High resolution models, like
the Texas Tech WRF show this broken line arriving around sunrise
Monday across the Hill Country and pushing south across the area
through the morning hours on Monday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The timing of the front being overnight into the morning hours on
Monday should reduce the risk of any strong or severe storms. Model
soundings do show decent CAPE across the area ahead of the front, but
limited shear. The best ingredients and jet dynamics will be across
North Texas and SE Oklahoma where SPC does have a slight risk area.
Their current Day 2 Risk does have a marginal risk down to around
Waco, but at this time it doesn`t clip any of our area. One or two
strong storms arn`t out of the question, like we saw with the last
front, but these should be very isolated. The front will push south
through the day on Monday with rain chances decreasing from South to
North. Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front with
highs on Monday only reaching the upper 70s in most areas. Tuesday
and Wednesday will be dry with seasonal temperatures as highs reach
to near 80 and lows bottom out in the 50s.

The next trough will dig down from the NW US during the day on
Thursday and push a stronger front through the area Thursday night
into Friday. THis front looks stronger in all aspects with gustier
winds and cooler temperatures behind it. It should also provide
another decent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning. How much stronger, you ask? Well right now
highs on Friday should struggle to get out of the 60s, with next
Saturday only seeing highs around 70. Overnight temps Friday into
Saturday should drop into the 40s. Will have to monitor temperature
trends in the models over the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  91  69  79  53 /  -   10  50  30  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  91  70  79  51 /  -   10  50  40  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  90  69  81  52 /  10  10  50  40  -
Burnet Muni Airport            59  89  63  77  49 /   0  10  60  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  94  67  86  55 /   0  10  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  91  65  78  50 /   0  10  60  30  -
Hondo Muni Airport             64  93  71  86  52 /   0  10  40  20  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  91  70  81  51 /  10  10  50  40  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  92  72  80  52 /  20  10  50  60  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  90  71  82  55 /  -   10  50  30  -
Stinson Muni Airport           66  91  72  83  55 /  10  10  40  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt