455
FXUS64 KEWX 091739
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening for all
  but the Rio Grande Plains. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy conditions to
  the region on Thursday.

- Rain and storms possible this weekend as a weak disturbance
  meanders over northern Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A 598dm Subtropical Ridge centered over southern Arizona will remain
in place through the foreseeable future. Between this and weak
ridging over the eastern Gulf, our region looks to be within a bit
of a Col or area of weaker steering flow and a region of slightly
elevated pressure between these two highs. Regional radar imagery
has already lit up early this afternoon over South Central Texas
with widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms embedded
within. While rainfall from these showers and storms is not expected
to be as heavy as recent storms, soils are already saturated from
recent rains, particularly to the west of I-35. Any additional
rainfal in these areas would exacerbate ongoing recovery efforts, so
hopefully the heaviest rains remain further east. WPC does have a
day 1 Marginal risk over most of the region given recent rains and
additional storm chances for the day today. Any shower or storm
activity should quickly weaken with loss of daytime heating this
evening. The good news is that this Col should weaken as ridging
strengthens somewhat Thursday and some Saharan dust works into our
area. The first dry forecast in well over a week is forecast for
Thursday with highs warming into the 90s, closer to seasonal normals
for early to mid-July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Friday looks like another dry day, something we are very thankful
for given our recent significant rains. The weekend will turn a bit
more interesting as a weak disturbance/inverted trough stalls out
over the northwestern Gulf and northeastern Mexico. This disturbance
will increase mid-level moisture over south Texas again, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected both Saturday and
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is again possible, with PWATs between
1.50-2.00" over the region. The most favored location for locally
heavy rainfall appears to be the Coastal Plains both days, but some
heavier rainfall could work further inland to the I-35 Corridor and
Hill Country.

Beyond the weekend, Subtropical Ridging looks to build into east
Texas by the beginning of next week, which should result in drier
and hotter conditions for the middle of July. Heat indices may be
more elevated than a typical mid-July setup given adequate soil
moisture from recent rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is increasing northeast of San
Antonio. AUS may get a thunderstorm sometime over the next couple of
hours. Storms are not likely to reduce the flying condition. All
terminals will be VFR through the coming period. There will be a
chance for showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon in the San
Antonio area. The changes is the TAFs are mainly just wind shifts
between south and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  75  94 /  10   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  94  75  94 /  10  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  94  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  92  72  91 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  93  73  92 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  94  73  94 /  20  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  75  93 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  75  93 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  75  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05