714
FXUS64 KEWX 091145
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-40% chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Coastal Plains,
  I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.
- Drier and hazy conditions with Saharan Dust on Thursday.
- Scattered rain chances over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Two features aloft of interest today. A retrograding weak trough
currently near the Texas coast and weakness dropping south out of
north Texas will link up this afternoon and evening across the
region. HREF members are keying in on isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms developing over the Coastal Plains and Hill
Country mid and late afternoon, with a slightly lower potential into
portions of the I-35 corridor late afternoon through the early
evening hours. Rainfall amounts of 1/2-1 inch are expected with this
isolated to widely scattered activity, although some heavy downpours
are possible, with isolated instances of 1-2" of rainfall quickly.
Precipitation is forecast to gradually wane after sunset.

Slight drier air works into the region late tonight into Thursday,
along with some hazy conditions associated with another plume of
Saharan dust. Coverage of any precipitation on Thursday should remain
very isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Within the broad shear axis aloft, an inverted trough appears to
sharpen on Friday across south Texas then lift northwest into the
region Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a pool of higher
precipitable water content off the Gulf. This trough looks to then
move into Trans Pecos and west Texas on Sunday and Monday, with the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge nudging into eastern areas
of the CWA. This will allow for rain chances (30-50%) to return back
to much of the region on Saturday and Saturday night, in the form of
scattered showers and storms, and favoring western areas on Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

IFR to MVFR cigs expected across the area terminals through mid
morning. VFR cigs return mid to late morning and stay through late
tonight. South to southeast wind flow is forecast for area airports
through the period. There is a slight chance for storms to affect
KAUS late this afternoon. Kept TS out from the TAFs for now and will
be closely monitoring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  74  95  75 /  30  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  94  75 /  30  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  73  94  73 /  20  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  72  91  72 /  40  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  73  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  73  92  72 /  10  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  73  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  93  75 /  30  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  74  95  75 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17