


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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455 FXUS64 KEWX 091739 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening for all but the Rio Grande Plains. Locally heavy rainfall possible. - Light concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy conditions to the region on Thursday. - Rain and storms possible this weekend as a weak disturbance meanders over northern Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A 598dm Subtropical Ridge centered over southern Arizona will remain in place through the foreseeable future. Between this and weak ridging over the eastern Gulf, our region looks to be within a bit of a Col or area of weaker steering flow and a region of slightly elevated pressure between these two highs. Regional radar imagery has already lit up early this afternoon over South Central Texas with widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms embedded within. While rainfall from these showers and storms is not expected to be as heavy as recent storms, soils are already saturated from recent rains, particularly to the west of I-35. Any additional rainfal in these areas would exacerbate ongoing recovery efforts, so hopefully the heaviest rains remain further east. WPC does have a day 1 Marginal risk over most of the region given recent rains and additional storm chances for the day today. Any shower or storm activity should quickly weaken with loss of daytime heating this evening. The good news is that this Col should weaken as ridging strengthens somewhat Thursday and some Saharan dust works into our area. The first dry forecast in well over a week is forecast for Thursday with highs warming into the 90s, closer to seasonal normals for early to mid-July. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Friday looks like another dry day, something we are very thankful for given our recent significant rains. The weekend will turn a bit more interesting as a weak disturbance/inverted trough stalls out over the northwestern Gulf and northeastern Mexico. This disturbance will increase mid-level moisture over south Texas again, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected both Saturday and Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is again possible, with PWATs between 1.50-2.00" over the region. The most favored location for locally heavy rainfall appears to be the Coastal Plains both days, but some heavier rainfall could work further inland to the I-35 Corridor and Hill Country. Beyond the weekend, Subtropical Ridging looks to build into east Texas by the beginning of next week, which should result in drier and hotter conditions for the middle of July. Heat indices may be more elevated than a typical mid-July setup given adequate soil moisture from recent rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is increasing northeast of San Antonio. AUS may get a thunderstorm sometime over the next couple of hours. Storms are not likely to reduce the flying condition. All terminals will be VFR through the coming period. There will be a chance for showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon in the San Antonio area. The changes is the TAFs are mainly just wind shifts between south and southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 95 75 94 / 10 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 94 74 94 / 10 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 92 72 91 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 94 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 93 73 92 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 94 73 94 / 20 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 95 75 95 / 10 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05