Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 172051
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The current upper air pattern is characterized by broad troughing across
the western CONUS and ridging across the eastern CONUS with
southwesterly flow aloft across South Central Texas. Drier air has
filtered in behind the cold frontal passage this morning. Low RH
values and some gusty winds have yielded some slightly elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon. The rest of today should be quite
pleasant with temperatures tonight dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s across the majority of the region.
Unfortunately, the brief period of mostly clear skies will be
squelched with the arrival of more cloud cover as we progress
through Monday afternoon due to the approach of another upper level
trough from the northwest. High temperatures tomorrow will be below
seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Weak
isentropic ascent will lead to slight chances for showers and drizzle
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Tuesday as the
trough axis approaches, with the Williamson and Lee County areas
being most favored for shower activity. Accumulated rainfall should
remain below a quarter of an inch. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
much cooler than seasonal normals.
Wednesday should generally remain dry as the upper level trough lifts
to the northeast, with only 20% PoPs across the Coastal Plains. There
should be some breaks in the clouds, allowing for partly sunny
conditions. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
Generally unsettled weather returns for Thursday through Saturday
due to the approach of another upper level trough from the northwest,
bringing mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. The GFS is more
bullish in terms of rain coverage and accumulated rainfall than the
ECMWF. For now, have mostly used a model blend for PoPs and QPF. Even
the more bullish GFS yields less than an inch of total accumulated
rainfall for all areas except for the northeastern counties of the
CWA. High temperatures during this time period will gradually warm,
with highs around 60 for Thursday and warming up to the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 41 58 43 49 42 / 0 0 30 50 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 59 43 50 42 / 0 0 30 50 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 60 44 53 42 / 0 0 30 40 20
Burnet Muni Airport 38 53 39 47 38 / 0 0 30 60 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 45 63 49 63 45 / 0 0 10 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 39 54 40 46 39 / 0 0 30 60 20
Hondo Muni Airport 42 63 46 58 43 / 0 0 20 30 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 40 60 43 52 42 / 0 0 30 50 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 40 61 46 52 44 / 0 0 40 60 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 42 61 45 55 44 / 0 0 20 40 20
Stinson Muni Airport 42 62 46 56 45 / 0 0 20 40 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...BMW
Public Service/Data Collection...YB