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155
FXUS64 KEWX 202356 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
656 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few light showers continue mainly east of I-35 as of early this
evening. This activity will continue to decrease with the loss of
daytime heating and we will not mention any SHRA in the current
forecast. Otherwise, some gusty southeast winds are in store for the
I-35 sites this evening, with winds decreasing after midnight. Low
cloud development is also expected and we will mention prevailing
MVFR cigs at SAT and SSF beginning 07-08Z. Low clouds do not appear
quite as favorable for AUS tomorrow morning and will only mention SCT
clouds for now. We will need to monitor the 12-14Z period at AUS as
this time frame may provide the best chance low cloud development.
Improvement is then expected after 14Z and SAT and SSF. For DRT, we
will keep the forecast VFR through the period as gusty southeast
winds continue for the next several hours, then decrease and back to
a more easterly direction after 03Z. We will not mention any low
clouds at DRT, but could see some SCT low clouds not too far east of
the terminal after 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Partly cloudy skies prevail for most of the area at this time with
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Overall, temperatures are
about a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday with some sites
unchanged. Scattered showers and storms will continue across the
Coastal Plains this afternoon aided by a weak inverted coastal
trough. There is a small chance that some of these could sneak
closer to the I35 corridor by late this afternoon. For tonight,
another dry night with lows in the middle to upper 70s can be
expected for most of the area. For tomorrow, the ridge is expected to
continue to break down which should allow high temperatures to be
another degree or two cooler than today. The inverted trough axis
will be west of the region and the overall coverage of showers and
storms will be less as a result.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Expect continued low chances of showers and storms on Thursday and
Friday mainly east of I35 in the afternoons. Highs will continue to
be in the upper 90s to 102 degrees with the warmer temperatures
closer to the Rio Grande. Medium range models then diverge with their
solutions beginning on Saturday which will then have subsequent
impacts on the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS/ECMWF both
develop a weak low across northern Mexico on Saturday but the GFS is
much stronger and moves it east as it gets picked up in the longwave
trough axis moving across the Central Plains. If the GFS were to
verify, Saturday afternoon and evening could be wet in the west with
the rest of the area seeing decent chances of rain on Sunday.
However, the ECMWF keeps this system much weaker and does not show it
getting picked up in the eastward moving trough. Therefore its
forecast for the weekend and beyond is much drier than that of the
GFS. Because the development and movement of this low is highly
dependent on several factors, will lean closer to the drier ECMWF for
now and only forecast 20/30 PoPs. This system will also have an
impact on the temperature forecast as well. Will continue with low
PoPs through Tuesday with the possible increased moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  99  77  99  77 /   0  -    0  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  74  98  74 /  -   -   -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  74  97  74 /   0  -    0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  77 101  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  76  99  76 /   0  -    0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             75 101  74 101  74 /   0  -   -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  75  98  75 /   0  -   -   10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  76  98  77 /   0  10   0  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  77  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  98  77 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...BMW
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams