080
FXUS64 KEWX 021840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.Key Messages...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon across the Rio
  Grande Plains, Hill Country, and Southern Edwards Plateau.

- Rain chances continue Thursday and will be on the increase across
  the Interstate 35 corridor.

- Pattern change will bring decreasing rain chances and increasing
  temperatures through the upcoming weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Radar data continues to show scattered showers along with a few
thunderstorms ongoing across the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards
Plateau and portions of the Hill Country. In addition, some new
convection is noted over the coastal plains into portions of the I-35
corridor. We did make some minor adjustments to the forecast earlier,
with the main change being to add some low rain chances farther east
into the remainder of the I-35 corridor and most of the coastal
plains. Similar to the past few days, well above normal moisture is
in place across the region. A fairly uniform southeast flow in the
lowest 400mb should keep any convection moving from southeast to
northwest around 30 mph. Areas that see repeated showers and storm
may pick up some locally heavy rainfall. However, any risk for this
is low and should remain very localized mainly across the Rio Grande
plains, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

Moisture levels remain nearly identical on Thursday and a fair
amount of the hi-res models show some decrease in the coverage of
showers and storms across the Rio Grande, with an increase in
coverage farther east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
Similar to today, a few spots may pick up some locally heavy rainfall
given the moisture profile on forecast soundings. High temperatures
on Thursday remain below normal for all areas due to an increase in
cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

With plenty of moisture intact and a weak upper disturbance to our
north, we should see another day of isolated to scattered convection
mainly for areas west of the Interstate 35 corridor on Friday. Cloud
cover and rain chances should keep high temperatures for areas west
of I-35 below normal, with near normal elsewhere. As we head into the
upcoming weekend, the subtropical high will build across northern
Mexico into the desert southwest. We should see a gradual decrease in
moisture levels and an increase in temperatures through the weekend.
For now, we will keep the forecast dry along with near to above
normal temperatures. However, we will need to monitor portions of the
southern Edwards Plateau as at least one of the medium range models
does show a weak disturbance moving in on Saturday.

The subtropical ridge remains centered over the desert southwest as
we head into the middle of next week. We expect to see most of south
central Texas remain dry. The exception will be near the coastal
plains as some afternoon and early evening convection may develop
along the sea breeze. Temperatures should remain near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions prevail from a T82 to SAT line westward as
areas of SHRA spread north. Lowest VIS/CIGs have been in DRT and
vicinity with stratiform rains. CIGs are gradually lifting to MVFR
or VFR this afternoon with higher CIGs east. Isolated to scattered
rain is forecast to spread to SAT/SSF/AUS and vicinity this
afternoon, with higher confidence to the west. Can`t entirely rule
out isolated TSRA 18Z-00Z, but coverage and chances were too low to
include in the TAFs. There is lower confidence in rain chances and
placement this evening. MVFR CIGs will likely spread east again
towards I-35 terminals Thursday morning. IFR CIGs are possible at
DRT, SAT, and SSF, though ensemble guidance is not as aggressive as
statistical models. Winds are forecast to remain near or below 10 kt
throughout the TAF period, with south to southeast flow prevailing
at I-35 terminals and southeast to east flow prevailing at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  91  75  96 /  10  40  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  90  75  95 /  10  40  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  89  74  94 /  20  40  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  88  73  92 /  20  40  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  88  75  92 /  50  60  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  89  74  93 /  20  40  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74  85  74  90 /  30  50  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  90  74  94 /  10  40  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  76  95 /   0  30  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  87  76  93 /  20  40  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  90  76  94 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Tran