Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261149
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low cloud development is noted to the east of the I-35 corridor this
morning. With most of the cloud development still expected to remain
east of I-35, we will continue to mention VFR conditions in the
forecast today. Low cloud development tonight currently appears
unfavorable, so the forecast will remain VFR. Winds will generally
continue from the south and southeast through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A decaying complex of showers and storms continue to push southward
into Burnet and Williamson counties as of 230AM. As expected, this
complex is falling apart due to outflow outpacing it and losing its
parent lifting mechanism.

Expecting fog development again in the Coastal Plain region similar
to yesterday morning. However, the density of fog should be a bit
less this morning due to cloud cover from this morning`s storms.
Whatever fog that does develop should quickly dissipate by 13-14Z
this morning and efficient heating will take place, likely reaching
the 90 degree mark by noon. Many locations west of the I-35 corridor
will flirt with or exceed the century mark today where elsewhere will
see mid to upper 90s. Some locations could even exceed record highs,
namely Austin, whose record of 96 is currently forecast to be
exceeded with a high of 97-98. Heat indices continue to slowly rise,
with some locations reaching as high as 106 in the southeast zones
this afternoon. Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm
this afternoon either due to an uncapped atmosphere, hot conditions,
and dew Ts in the upper 60s and low 70s in the east. However, almost
all CAM depictions keep things dry throughout the day.

For Sunday, a "copy and paste" of today`s forecast would not be far
off from the actual forecast as stubborn ridging continues resulting
in a degree or two higher afternoon highs. Highs along the Rio Grande
could reach as high as 105.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Stubborn ridging at the H5 level will continue through the next 7
days with no PoPs in the forecast. The high will only strengthen
further as we progress through the week, even centering itself over
South Central Texas by Friday. This pattern appears to change little
in the long range GFS/ECMWF/Canadian outcomes. The continued hot and
dry conditions will serve to dry out area soils and may become an
increasing fire weather concern by this time next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  73  98  75  98 /  10  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  72  97  73  98 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  71  98  73  98 /  -    0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  72  96  73  96 /  10  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  72 106  76 104 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  72  96  72  96 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  70 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  71  98  73  99 /  10  -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  72  99  75  99 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  72  99  74  99 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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