Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 120600 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
100 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Please see the 06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface wind gusts are beginning to ease a little across the region.
We expect winds to continue a slow decreasing trend overnight as low
clouds begin developing over the next couple of hours. We still
expect MVFR cigs for I-35 between 09-15Z and will mention prevailing
groups at SAT and SSF. For AUS, the stratus could be a little thinner
and will mention a TEMPO group between 10-14Z. Low cloud development
is not anticipated as far west as DRT and we will keep the forecast
VFR. Otherwise, look for gusty south to southeast winds from late
morning through the evening hours at all sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The subtropical ridge remains centered generally over West Texas.
High pressure at the surface is centered over the Gulf and winds
across our CWA are from the southeast to southwest. We do not expect
any significant change to this pattern during this period. Subsidence
under the ridge will keep rain out of most areas. The southeasterly
low level flow will produce mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half
of the area overnight, while skies remain partly to mostly clear out
west. The upper ridge will be a bit stronger and suppress nearly all
convection Wednesday. Only a small corner of our southeastern
counties will have any chance for rain and even than chances are low.
Temperatures Wednesday will continue to be above normal with highs
in the upper 90s to around 104. Heat index values will reach 110 in a
few places, but these extremes will be localized and a heat advisory
seems unnecessary. In addition, this is the climatological hottest
week of the year. Tuesday night will be a virtual repeat of tonight.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The rest of this week doesn`t look to offer much respite from the
heat as the upper low remains anchored over AZ/NM & into the Wrn Half
of TX. Temps and heat indices will be similar through at least
Sunday. Late in the weekend the upper low begins to change shape,
lifting more to the north into the Great Basin and allowing a more
northerly flow aloft over the Southern Plains. Another hot day is
expected for Monday, but late afternoon storms are expected to erupt
as instability spills in from the north. There are some slight
variations in timing, and the CMC model suggests the activity arrives
early and lowers max temps for Monday. Will keep with the blends as
there aren`t really any models showing a preferred handling of NW
flow patterns. If the late afternoon timing remains the most favored
as we get closer to Monday, some strong storm winds may need to be
considered. The rains should drop the highs back to the 90s for
almost all areas Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday, but high
pressure and hot weather will likely return again late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  78 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  76 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            99  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  80 104  78 105 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  78 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport            100  76 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  76 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  78 101  76 101 /  -    0  -    0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  78 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport          101  78 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...04


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