Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231158
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
558 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

.UPDATE...
See below for the 12z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

AUS/SAT/SSF...

Currently MVFR CIGs at all terminals except for SSF, which should be
joining the MVFR party shortly. The IFR CIGs that were advertised
for this morning with the 06z TAF issuance seem less likely at this
point, but could still be possible at SAT. Likewise, fog lowering
VSBYs to 6SM or less also does not seem likely at the terminals any
longer. MVFR CIGs are expected to persist through the day today with
southerly winds around 10 knots. IFR CIGs are expected to develop by
around midnight Monday morning. A few high res models and ensembles
continue to suggest the possibility of some showers developing Monday
morning with the passage of the cold front, so have continued to
maintain mention of VCSH. VFR conditions will return behind the
front with winds turning northwesterly.

DRT...
Currently MVFR due to CIGs with the possibility of a brief period of
IFR CIGs between 13z and 16z this morning. CIGs are expected to
improve to VFR by early afternoon. Some guidance suggests the
possibility of showers in the vicinity later this evening, but have
decided to keep any mention of this out of the TAFs for now.
Likewise, still believe that DRT will be too far southwest to be
impacted by any showers with the frontal passage Monday morning.
Southeasterly winds around 8 to 10 knots today will become light
overnight before turning northwesterly behind the cold front on
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Current water vapor imagery shows the center of the mid level low
over northwestern Arizona with the southern stream trough axis
extending southward into the Gulf of California. A southerly, low
level warm air advection pattern has set up over South Central Texas
in response, and this will only continue to ramp up as we head
through the morning hours and into Sunday afternoon. Morning low
temperatures will be much warmer compared to the previous several
nights thanks to the increased moisture and cloud cover. Widespread
stratus will develop this morning, and there could be some patchy
fog and drizzle developing toward sunrise for portions of the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor. For today, expect mostly cloudy to
overcast skies (some partial clearing later in the day across the
Rio Grande Plains), southerly winds, and high temperatures back to
seasonal normals. There could be a few patchy light showers this
afternoon and early evening for the Austin area and points east.

By late tonight, the center of the 500 mb low will be over the TX
and OK Panhandles and will move northeast into OK/MO/KS by early
Monday morning. This will send a Pacific cold front through the
region from northwest to southeast Monday morning. Several of the
high res models and ensembles continue to suggest the potential for
showers developing along the front. They also indicate the potential
for a thunderstorm or two given the elevated instability, although
there will be a cap in place that would have to be overcome. Any
accumulated rainfall should remain below a quarter of an inch. The
front should be completely through the region by 10 AM Monday, and
breezy northwesterly winds will come behind the front. Despite the
frontal passage, high temps on Monday will be warmer than today,
with highs in the low to mid 70s for most locations (upper 70s
across the Rio Grande Plains), with skies becoming mostly clear
behind the front.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Dry and cool weather conditions are expected for Monday evening into
Tuesday in the wake of the Pacific frontal passage. Winds become
light and variable on Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. The
second cold front comes dry but with a much cooler air mass. Also,
it brings breezy conditions with strong winds out of the north
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The cold air sits over the area with
lows in the lower 30s across the Hill Country to lower 40s across
the coastal plains. Highs temperatures are forecast to range from
the lower 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday. Winds become light and
variable Wednesday night into Thursday morning under clear skies
providing a nice setup for radiational cooling and allowing lows to
drop to the mid 20s to mid 30s areawide.

After a cold morning on Thursday, temperatures bounce back into the
60s under sunny skies. Another cool night is in store for Friday
morning, however, a warming trend is forecast for Friday afternoon into
next weekend with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  61  72  45  66 /  20  30  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  61  73  44  67 /  20  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  60  74  45  70 /  10  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  55  69  43  62 /  20  20  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  55  78  47  71 /  -   10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  58  71  43  63 /  20  20  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  58  77  45  73 /  -   20   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  60  74  44  69 /  10  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  62  74  45  69 /  20  40  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  60  75  47  70 /  -   20  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  62  76  48  72 /  -   20  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...BMW
Long-Term...17



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