Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 170446
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1046 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.AVIATION...
Ceilings in Austin and San Antonio have dropper to IFR and will
remain at that level until a cold front moves through later tonight.
MVFR fog will develop overnight. The cold front will move through
the region Sunday morning and will clear out the ceilings with
northwest to north wind.

At DRT, conditions will remain generally VFR, but there is a chance
for temporary IFR ceiling for a few hours later this evening.
Northwest winds will move in overnight and clear out any clouds that
do form.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to add a mention of fog for areas
generally along and east of an Eagle Pass to Burnet line tonight.
Some of the hi-res models suggest a few pockets of dense fog may
develop early Sunday morning, especially near the coastal plains and
Highway 77 corridor. We will continue to monitor trends this
evening, but will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory at this time.
Otherwise, we have made some changes to the dew points, winds and sky
cover to account for recent trends.

High temperatures for tomorrow will be tricky as we will see a
decrease in cloud cover behind the cold front. However, with
northerly winds and cold air advection tomorrow, suspect the cooler
NAM12 and LAV surface temps may be on the right track. We have
lowered the high temperatures slightly for areas along and north of
I-10. Pending the remainder of the 00Z guidance, later shifts may
need to adjust downward. The warmest temperatures will be along and
south of U.S. 57, where mid to upper 70s are forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
This mornings cold frontal passage has left the area with an
interesting temperature gradient. Currently, for the counties in the
northeastern section area are seeing temperatures in the 40s, while
our furthest western county of Val Verde is already up to 81 degrees.
The cold air advection will stay limited to the northeast. This
evening, winds turn back to southeasterly and keep temperatures mild
overnight before another cold front passes through early tomorrow
morning. Most models showing frontal passage as dry until reaching
coastal region. The passage of this Pacific front will lower RHs into
the teens for Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs and increased winds
from FROPA will bring Elevated Fire Weather for areas west of I-35
Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Cooler airmass from Sunday`s frontal passage will set up another wet
pattern as isentropic ascent keeps the area cloudy and damp with
chances for rain from Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures also
remain cooler through Thursday. Thursday, another approaching system
brings more chances for showers, mostly for eastern counties. By
Friday, temperatures recover to near normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  65  41  60  43 /  10   0   0   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  65  40  61  44 /  10   0   0   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  67  41  62  44 /  10   0   0   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            48  62  39  56  40 /   0   0   0   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  74  44  65  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        49  62  40  57  42 /  10   0   0   0  40
Hondo Muni Airport             54  74  42  65  46 /  -    0   0   0  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  66  40  62  44 /  10   0   0   0  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  65  41  63  47 /  10  -    0   0  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  71  42  63  46 /  10   0   0   0  30
Stinson Muni Airport           55  72  43  65  47 /  10  -    0   0  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt



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