Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 130539
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will prevail through the period at all airports. There
is an area of light showers moving across the northern part of our
forecast area. These showers should stay north of the Austin and San
Antonio areas. Winds will be five kts or less overnight and become
southerly at around 5 kts by late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019/

UPDATE...
Lightning strikes have been noted between Mountain Home and
Rocksprings recently as well as greater areal coverage of showers
from the Rio Grande to the Hill Country. As a result, have introduced
mention of isolated thunderstorms and boosted POPs to chance
category.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Isolated showers have continued from a Rocksprings to Fredericksburg
to Austin to Dime Box through the morning and into the afternoon.
This is along an axis of isentropic lift that was evident in the
morning models. Winds overnight will become light and then switch
around to the south for the day on Sunday. Skies will remain mostly
cloudy for the day on Sunday and afternoon highs will begin to warm
into the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday afternoon. Even with return
flow beginning the lack of isentropic lift and an expanding high
pressure should keep South Central Texas dry for Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Zonal upper level flow will continue across South Central Texas to
begin the work week as the broad ridge of high pressure extends
across Northern Mexico and most of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture from
the Pacific, and the likely tropical system to be named Octave
(currently has a 90% chance of forming from NHC) will feed into South
Central Texas on the northern periphery of the ridge. The increased
moisture coupled with some isentropic lift and a weakness rotating
around the top of the ridge will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the area Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to warm back above seasonal normals with
highs in the low 90s and lows around 70 by Tuesday.

The next cold front arrives Tuesday night. Showers and storms are
likely along the front. The 12z models have come into better
agreement with the timing of the front with all 3 synoptic models
(Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS) all showing around midnight into Wednesday
morning. Models all agree that the front will clear out
precipitation. At this point it doesn`t look like the cold air will
be that strong behind the front. While the GFS has continued to trend
cooler and shows low 70s for highs on Wednesday, the ECMWF has kept
temperatures around 80 degrees. Overnight lows should cool to around
60 though behind the front.

Beyond day 5 models differ as to the next system. The GFS shows a
shortwave in the southern stream of the zonal flow. The Canadian
hints at one too, but it is not as strong as the GFS. The ECMWF does
show a weakness in the ridge but at this point doesn`t show a full
trough or shortwave. Will carry some slight chance PoPs at this point
to cover the various possibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  67  86  73  91 /  -   -   20  30  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  65  86  72  91 /  10  -   20  30  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  66  88  71  93 /  -   10  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            75  63  83  69  88 /  10  -   10  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  66  90  71  93 /  -   -   -   20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  64  84  71  90 /  10  -   20  30  50
Hondo Muni Airport             80  67  91  73  95 /  -   -   -   20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  65  87  72  92 /  10  -   20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  68  87  74  92 /  10  -   40  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  68  89  74  93 /  -   -   10  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           79  69  90  74  93 /   0  -   10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Zeitler


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