Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 011752
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1152 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Forecast precipitation continues to trend drier while strong and
gusty northerlies and cloudy skies should keep the afternoon highs
from equaling the early morning temps that were still warmer. Hourly
temps were retrended, but more importantly the PoPs were nudged down
for the afternoon and more of the weather grids were backed away
from thunder possibilities and more towards patchy drizzle.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
As noted in the update above, the need for weather mentions in the
TAFS has gone down, especially in regards to VSBY restrictions. Only
some patchy drizzle and a few more hours of light shower activity is
expected along the I-35 terminals, with perhaps some low impact
wrap-around drizzle possible in the AUS area this evening. The gusty
winds and light precip rates have allowed for VFR cigs along I-35 but
this could be temporarily reversed around AUS as winds get slightly
lower later today. Winds should lose their gusty nature late this
evening with most of the TAFs staying VFR, AUS will probably show an
MVFR cig for much of the evening, but should see decreasing clouds
before sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/


SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Well, the severe weather threat never materialized tonight, as a
combination of a mid-level capping inversion and delayed and
northward-displaced forcing for ascent have kept a lid on things.
Mainly just a few light, cellular looking sprinkles east. As of
0730Z some showers were finally developing just to our NW over
Crockett and Terrell counties, and still anticipating some isolated
shower and thunderstorm development over primarily the northern half
of the area over the next few hours. Most locations are likely to
only see a few hundredths to perhaps a quarter of an inch or so of
rainfall.

Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 50s north at 07Z, and
should bottom out in the mid 40s there by sunrise. During the day,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually shift eastward,
and may remain peskily across eastern portions of our area from noon
through around or just after midnight before any remaining
isentropic lift exits to our east. Winds behind the front thus far
have mainly been in the 10-15 mph range with a few 25-30 mph gusts,
but during the day as 950 mb winds increase, gusts will become more
common as low level lapse rates and thus mixing increases. Current
expectations are for relatively widespread gusts to 25-35 mph and
isolated gusts to 40 mph are possible.

Daytime highs today will remain cool, in the low 50s north to low
60s in the Winter Garden region up through about Del Rio. Skies
should clear out tonight over the southern Edwards Plateau, and so
northern portions of Val verde and Edwards counties could see lows
Tuesday morning approach freezing. elsewhere, lows should remain in
the low to mid 40s. Tuesday should be mostly sunny and dry, warming
slightly into the upper 50s northeast to low to mid 60s southwest.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Surface pressure ridge with light winds, low dewpoints, and mostly
clear skies allow nearly efficient radiational cooling for below
normal temperatures Tuesday night. A brief freeze is possible in a
few low lying Hill Country spots. Ridge moves off to the east on
Wednesday allowing southerly winds to return leading to a warming
trend with slightly above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday.
Breezy conditions may develop due to a strengthening surface pressure
gradient. An upper level trough currently off the Pacific Northwest
coast along 135W longitude closes off as it approaches California
Tuesday into Wednesday. It then moves across the Four Corners region
Thursday to the Central and Southern Plains Friday where it drags a
cold front across our area later in the day. There may be enough
upward forcing and moisture for a few showers along and east of
I-35/I-37 corridors on Friday with rainfall amounts less than 1/10
inch. In the wake of the frontal passage, breezy northerly winds and
cooler, below normal temperatures return by Saturday. Then, another
warming trend begins on Sunday with southerly winds and continues
into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              52  43  62  39  68 /  60  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  43  62  34  68 /  60  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  44  65  37  69 /  50  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            51  39  61  37  68 /  60  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  40  66  41  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        52  41  61  35  66 /  60  30   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  40  67  36  70 /  30   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  42  63  37  68 /  50  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   55  45  62  39  67 /  70  30  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  43  65  39  68 /  40  -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           55  43  65  39  68 /  40  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Morris
Decision Support...05


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