Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250445
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR skies prevail tonight. CIGs develop on Saturday as lower level
moisture increases. MVFR CIGs develop at KDRT and the Rio Grande
Plains by mid morning. Stratus goes SCT-BKN in the afternoon and
have gone SCT at KDRT. MVFR CIGs then redevelop early in the evening
and then spread to the north and east with KSAT/KSSF seeing those
lower CIGs in the evening and KAUS overnight. ISOLD-SCT SHRA develop
late afternoon and spread across areas east of a KCOT to KAQO line
Saturday night. Have gone with VCSH at KSAT/KSSF late evening and
KAUS overnight. S-SE winds 5 KTs or less tonight increase to 10 to
15 KTs on Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface high pressure in place over the region has yielded a
pleasant winter afternoon with clear skies and high temps in the
60s. Southeasterly low level flow has resumed across the western
areas of the region, with this expected to spread eastward to the
rest of the region by later this afternoon. This will allow for some
modest moisture return to the Coastal Plains by late tonight.
Despite this, generally clear skies and lows in the 40s are expected
overnight.

With moisture continually on the increase and a short wave trough
approaching from the west, cloud cover will increase from west to
east throughout the morning and early afternoon hours of Saturday,
with essentially all of South Central Texas seeing broken to
overcast cloud decks by mid afternoon. High temperatures for
tomorrow should be similar to today, with highs in the 60s. With the
lower atmosphere moistening and some weak ascent, a few isolated
showers could be possible by late afternoon across far southern and
southeastern portions of the region.

Forcing for ascent will increase as the shortwave trough and
accompanying weak Pacific cold front further approach, and this will
increase rain chances for Saturday night and into early Sunday
morning for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.
However, QPF should generally remain less than a quarter inch.
Overnight lows on Saturday night will be much warmer than previous
nights due to increase moisture and cloud cover, with lows ranging
from the upper 40s in the Hill Country to mid to upper 50s
elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Some lingering shower activity may continue along the Highway 77
corridor, including Giddings, La Grange and Hallettsville Sunday
morning as a weak upper disturbance and cold front move east of the
area. Otherwise, we expect dry weather along with above normal
temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface
high pressure remains intact Sunday night, with lows generally in the
mid 30s to mid 40s along with light winds. Southerly winds will begin
to increase on Monday as another upper level disturbance moves into
the desert southwest and southern Rockies. We will keep the forecast
dry for Monday, but do expect an increase in rain chances Monday
night and Tuesday for the Hill Country, I-35 corridor eastward into
the coastal plains as the upper level disturbance and cold front
move in from the west. We will see gusty northwest winds across all
areas on Tuesday behind the Pacific cold front.

For late in the work week, the forecast continues to remain uncertain
as another upper level system approaches from the west. While it does
appear the latest operational ECMWF and GFS are beginning to show
some consistency with regards to the mid-level flow pattern, we
continue to see some significant differences with the placement of
higher rain chances. The GFS favors locations generally north of a
line from Del Rio to San Antonio to La Grange, while the ECMWF favors
areas to the south of this line. For now, we will keep rain chances
fairly low (20-40%) across all areas and refine as subsequent model
data begins to converge on a solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  66  53  70  44 /   0   0  40  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  41  67  52  71  42 /   0   0  40  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     45  67  53  72  44 /   0  -   40  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            44  64  49  67  42 /   0  -   20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           48  65  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        42  65  50  68  42 /   0  -   30  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             45  65  51  75  45 /   0  10  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  67  52  72  42 /   0   0  40  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   44  67  55  69  45 /   0  -   50  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       48  66  55  72  47 /   0  10  30  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           47  67  56  74  47 /   0  10  30  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...EWilliams



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