Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 270055 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
755 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Earlier convection has decreased with the loss of daytime heating and
we should remain precipitation free through tonight. With drier air
in the low-level, low cloud development is not expected and we expect
VFR skies along with light winds through the overnight hours. For
tomorrow, south to southeast winds return by mid-morning. With
daytime heating and moisture, clouds will develop early afternoon
along the I-35 corridor. We should also see a round of thunderstorms
move in from the northwest. AUS will likely see thunderstorms during
the evening hours and with confidence higher here, we have included a
TEMPO group for TSRA between 23-02Z. Farther south, our confidence is
reduced, but did include a PROB30 for SAT toward the end of the
forecast period. For DRT, we will keep VFR skies and no mention of
precipitation as most of the activity should remain along I-35.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Drier air has worked into the area, and as we all recover from the
wet pattern over the past several days. This afternoon and evening
should remain mostly dry and uneventful. Temperatures reach the low
80s this afternoon, and low to mid 60s tonight. Tomorrow is a
different story as the low that spins over Texas, and drifts
slightly east, leaving the area under northwestern flow aloft. With
eventual southerly flow at the surface, shear values increase to
greater than 60kts. As high shear and vorticity propagate around the
low, South Central Texas is under the threat for severe storms, yet
again. Moderate instability across the region upwards of 2200J/kg of
CAPE, as the daytime further destabilizes the atmosphere.

Based on these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has the
northeastern portion of our CWA, including the Austin metro area, in
an enhanced risk for tomorrow evening. San Antonio`s metro area, in
the slight risk area, will also have to be vigilant with evolving
weather conditions.

Initial development may start out as discrete cells in the Hill
Country, where very large hail will be the main threat. Should these
cells congeal as they progress and become more linear, damaging wind
will become the main threat, though the chance for large hail still
exists. Also, given the amount of shear generated, tornadoes may be
possible.

Activity should progress overnight, tomorrow night before
dissipating. Overnight lows that night will be in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
North flow will continue on the backside of the upper low on Thursday
with a continued chance of isolated showers and storms. Overall
coverage is not expected to be too high. The slight chance of rain
will shift to the south and southwest counties for Friday through
Sunday as moisture becomes a bit scoured for the remainder of the
area as the upper low departs and ridging begins to build back into
the region. The ridge is expected to center over the region
Monday/Tuesday with dry weather expected across the entire area.
Temperatures will be in the 80s and lower 90s for most of the
extended forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  87  67  87  66 /  -   40  60  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  87  66  87  66 /  -   40  60  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  88  66  88  66 /  -   40  50  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            62  85  64  85  63 /  -   50  60  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  95  71  93  70 /  -   -    0  -   20
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  87  65  85  65 /  -   50  70  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             62  90  68  92  68 /  -   -   20  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  87  65  88  66 /  -   40  50  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  86  67  88  68 /  -   40  50  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  89  68  90  68 /  -   20  50  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           65  90  69  90  69 /  -   10  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks



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