Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260815
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

An upper level trough covers much of the country with its axis
extending over west TX. The flow over our CWA is southwesterly. At
the surface, a cold front is stretched across the region from near
Giddings to San Marcos to Rocksprings. North of the boundary winds
are from the north and south of the boundary winds are light and
variable.

The front will stall before being pushed out toward the east today.
There is little lift across this boundary and that will continue to
be the case during the day today. It will bring some cooler air to
the eastern half of the CWA with highs near ten degrees cooler than
yesterday. Drier air over the west will drop relative humidity below
20% and a Rangeland Fire Danger statement will be issued for Val
Verde, Edwards, and Kinney counties this afternoon with wind speeds
near 15 mph. Tuesday night the weather will remain quiet and
seasonally cool. Lows Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than
Tuesday.

Wednesday the upper trough axis will move across our CWA and a
dryline will move into the area. This combination of features along
with daytime heating may produce enough lift to generate some
thunderstorms. If storms do form, there should be enough instability
and vertical wind shear to produce isolated strong to severe storms.
SPC has included parts of Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties in
a Marginal (1 of 5) risk area. As the boundary layer warms it will
become well mixed and this will favor damaging wind gusts as the
primary threat. There will also be a chance for large hail with
steep mid-level lapse rates. Any convection should end with the loss
of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

There is a potential that a few showers and storms linger into the
evening on Wednesday. However, it is very low and will not include,
at this time.

Southerly lower level flow takes hold in response to deepening
surface low pressure in the Plains on Thursday bringing a warming
and moistening trend through Monday. Temperatures warm to above
normal by Friday and continue well above normal through Monday due
to upper level ridging. Moisture increases across all areas by
Friday with a rather humid airmass Saturday through Monday. A stout
surface pressure gradient will enable breezy winds. The next chances
of rain are beyond this forecast, possibly as early as next Monday
night into Tuesday with passage of a surface front and upper level
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

There is a fairly large patch of middle to high clouds moving across
the region this morning. All terminals will have mid-level ceilings
overnight. Winds in the Austin and San Antonio areas will generally
be less than 10 kts from the north overnight and through the morning
then shift to the northeast through east during the afternoon. At
DRT, winds will be from the northwest overnight and shift to the west
late morning. They will be gusty for a few hours late morning/early
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue this
afternoon, mainly for Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney Counties where
RH will dip into the teens and sustained wind speeds could briefly
approach 15 mph. RH below 20% will extend down the Rio Grande Plains,
but winds will be lighter and conditions will be elevated. A
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued for these counties for
today.

A repeat of today is expected on Wednesday with a Rangeland Fire
Danger statement likely for the same counties. Southerly flow returns
on Thursday, however moisture recovery will be delayed until Friday.
As a result, another day of elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions is expected over the same areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  47  72  49 /   0  10  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  45  72  44 /   0  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  46  74  46 /   0  10  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  45  70  46 /   0  10  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  55  82  50 /   0  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  45  71  44 /   0  10  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  49  76  46 /   0  10  30   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  45  72  45 /   0  10  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  46  70  47 /   0  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  49  74  48 /   0  10  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  49  75  49 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05


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