Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 220812
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
The heat is on, at least for the next two days as the upper level
ridge across the Southwestern U.S. builds eastward across the state
of Texas. As the ridge builds in and flattens temperatures will warm
into the mid to upper 90s across South Central Texas, with highs
topping out near 100 along the Rio Grande Plains. With plenty of
surface moisture in place due to the southerly winds off the Gulf of
Mexico, and some areas still with saturated ground along the Coastal
Plains afternoon dew point values will remain up enough that heat
index values will soar. Afternoon heat index values will range from
103 to 107 Friday afternoon, and may be a few degrees higher than
that on Saturday. We will be flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria
over much of the area today and tomorrow (criteria is 110 heat index
along the Rio Grande Plains, and 108 heat index elsewhere).
Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is issued caution should be
taken each afternoon through Sunday if you are outside during the
afternoon hours. Stay hydrated, taking breaks, and find shade or
other ways to beat the heat. Winds will pick up slight into the
weekend as well as the surface pressure gradient tightens with
disturbances moving across North Texas and Oklahoma. South winds of
10 to 20 mph will be possible under partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies. Overnight lows will continue to run 4 to 6 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The hot, dry, and windy conditions will continue into Sunday with the
ridge well established over South Central Texas. Afternoon heat index
values for Sunday `cool` a bit and will range from 102 to 106.

Heading into the new work week both the ECMWF and GFS still advertise
an inverted trough or low pressure disturbance moving westward from
the Gulf of Mexico into South Texas and then trekking up the Rio
Grande River. This feature will help break down the ridge just enough
to spark off some isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
Monday through Thursday. This is only a slight chance for rain, with
most folks remaining dry. An added benefit of the inverted trough
will be increased cloudy cover with temperatures holding in the mid
90s each afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  76  97  77  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  76  96  77  95 /  -    0  -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  97  76  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            97  75  96  75  95 /   0   0  -    0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  79 103  79 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  76  96  77  95 /   0   0  -    0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             98  76 100  76  98 /  -    0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  97  77  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  76  95  78  94 /  -   -   -   -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  97  77  97 /  -    0  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  98  77  97 /  -    0  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway


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