Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 140706 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
206 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Please see the 06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through most of the forecast period. For
the overnight hours, we will continue to see plenty of high clouds
moving in from the northwest. Surface winds will generally remain
from the southeast through mid-morning, the become southerly along
I-35. Some gusty conditions are likely and we will include some gusts
at AUS and DRT during the afternoon hours. Late in the period, we
will see an increase in low clouds resulting in MVFR cigs returning
to the I-35 corridor around 15/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the eastern half
of the country and a ridge over the Rockies. The flow over Texas was
from the northwest. At the surface, a cold front was stretched across
South Texas just south of our CWA. Winds behind the front were light
and generally from the northeast. Dewpoint temperatures ranged from
the middle 50s to the upper 60s. As the upper trough moves away to
the east the flow will become weakly anticyclonic. This will keep the
weather dry tonight and Friday. A shortwave trough will move across
the Big Bend region Friday night and may produce some thunderstorms
over the mountains in Northern Mexico. Isolated storms could make it
across the Rio Grande into our northwestern area. The rest of the CWA
will remain dry. Friday the low level flow will become more southerly
and high temperatures will jump up to a few degrees above normal.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday an upper trough will move across New Mexico into West Texas
and then across the state Sunday and Monday. As this feature moves
over our CWA there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday through Tuesday. Rain chances will mainly be confined to the
eastern half of the area where the deepest moisture will be. Tuesday
a low amplitude upper ridge will move over Texas. This ridging will
be shortlived as the flow becomes more zonal Tuesday night and then a
shallow trough will move across Wednesday and Thursday. Despite these
changes in the upper air pattern, the weather will likely stay dry.
Temperatures during this period will slowly increase with highs
reaching 100 across most of the southern half of the CWA by
Wednesday. The heat index will for the beginning of next week will
range from 103 to 108 for most of the area outside of the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  74  96  76  96 /   0   0  -   10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  73  97  75  98 /   0   0  -   20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  73  96  75  96 /   0   0  -   10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             98  73  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  73  97  75  97 /   0   0  -   10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  75  96  78  96 /   0   0  10  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  73  97  75  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           95  73  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks



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