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856
FXUS64 KEWX 220558
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Little change for the TAFs for the 22/06Z to 23/12Z forecast period.
MVFR CIGs develop at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF overnight and KDRT early Friday
morning as CIGs lower to IFR with MVFR VSBYs at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. Could
be briefly lower CIGs and VSBYs as indicated in a couple of models,
however chances too low to mention, though, will monitor
observational trends. Mixing allows for skies to become VFR late in
the morning. MVFR/IFR CIGs return overnight Friday night on stronger
low level jet. S to SE winds 4 to 10 KTs increase to 11 to 18 KTs on
Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Any final remnants of showers left over from this week`s system will
be coming to an end this evening as high pressure continues to
build in from the west. Skies clear out across the entire region
tomorrow and temperatures return to above normal. High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 90s for the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas with around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Elevated
relative humidities will yield heat indices from around 100 to 107
degrees across the region Friday afternoon. Friday night will be
partly cloudy with overnight lows only dropping to the mid to upper
70s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday will be similar to Friday, with heat indices a bit higher
across the board, with Austin and San Antonio experiencing heat
indices of 103 to 106 and the Rio Grande and coastal plains reaching
up to 106-109 degrees. These values will be nearing heat advisory
criteria, so trends will be closely monitored. Southerly winds will
also increase this weekend, with sustained winds up to 15 mph.

Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler on Sunday as the upper
high slides to the east of the region. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
continue to show an inverted trough making its way into south Texas
Sunday into Wednesday. The ECMWF is a bit more bullish on this
feature, and as such is a bit more optimistic about POPs across the
eastern portions of south central Texas than the GFS. For now, have
maintained 20% POPs for the coastal plains Monday through Thursday.
However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected from
these.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday through Thursday,
with high temperatures in the mid 90s for the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas with upper 90s to 100 along the Rio Grande. These
temperatures will still be running a couple degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  97  77  96  77 /   0   0  -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  77  95  77 /   0   0  -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  76  96  76 /   0   0  -   -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  75  95  75 /   0   0  -   -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  79 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  77  95  77 /   0   0  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             76 100  76  98  77 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  77  95  77 /   0   0  -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  95  78  93  78 /   0   0  -   10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  77  96  77 /   0   0  -   -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  77  97  77 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway