228
FXUS64 KEWX 080640
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

Key Messages:

- Isolated heavy rain possible across the coastal plains and I-35
corridor in the afternoon

- Pockets of 2 to 3 inches rainfall amounts possible. Can`t rule
higher amounts

- Isolated to scattered rain chances continue into Wednesday for
portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and the coastal plains

- Warming trend is in store throughout the week

- Rain chances return for most location over the weekend

&&


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The local area stays under the influence of an upper level ridge to
the west and upper level inverted trough to the east throughout the
day. At low levels, a southerly flow pushes Gulf moisture into south
central Texas through the period. By mid to late morning into the
afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop across the coastal plains and slowly spread to the north
into the I-35 corridor. With precipitable water values running
around 2.0 to 2.3 inches and as high as 2.6 inches, expect isolated
pockets of 2 to 3 inches in a short period of time (1 to 3 hour time
frame). Can`t rule out a few spots getting higher amounts if the
intense shower or strong storm sits over for a long time or training
occurs. With saturated soils over a good portion of the local area
especially the Hill Country and I-35 corridor including the Austin
and San Antonio metro areas, rain rates over 2 inches per hour are
likely to cause flooding over low lying and poor drainage
areas. Therefore, it is important to stay vigilant.

The shower and thunderstorm activity comes down in the evening over
most areas, however, some hires models suggest for the activity to
continue along the I-35 corridor and the north portion of the Hill
Country into the mid to late evening. Therefore, we are keeping low
probabilities (20 percent) to account for those solutions. Then late
at night into the overnight hours, a mid level trough axis reaches
the southern Edwards Plateau leading to the development of isolated
to scattered showers over that area. We are showing isolated shower
activity from northern Real County to the northeast into Burnet and
Williamson counties.

By Wednesday morning, rain chances are less than 10 percent for most
areas with the exception of the coastal plains where chances are
around 20 to 30 percent. By the afternoon, rain chances increase and
expand across the I-35 corridor and portions of the Hill Country.
Some showers and storms could produce pockets of heavy rain.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, upper level ridge
weakens a bit while the upper level inverted trough axis moves across
the Rio Grande. At this time, Thursday looks relatively dry with the
exception of the coastal plains where isolated showers and storms
are possible along the sea breeze. By Friday, the upper level ridge
pushes back into our local area to keep dry conditions. Showers and
storms return to a larger area across south central Texas over the
weekend as an upper level trough sits across central Texas and brings
back elevated moisture content which leads to elevated heat index
values of 100 to 107 across the I-35 corridor, coastal plains, and
portions of the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions currently prevail across south-central Texas. Stratus
is forecast to redevelop through portions of the Hill Country and I-
35 corridor overnight. Ceilings primarily MVFR with the stratus,
becoming VFR 15Z-17Z as stratus mixes out. Isolated to widely
scattered SHRA/TSRA activity is forecast to develop across the
Coastal Plains 18Z-21Z, expanding into portions of the I-35 corridor
21Z-01Z. PROB30 TSRA indicated in the AUS/SAT/SSF TAfs for this
potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  73  93  73 /  30  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            89  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  76  95  76 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  74  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             91  74  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  74  92  75 /  50  10  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  75  92  75 /  30  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           93  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...76