Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251130
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
530 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...
VFR conditions prevail early this morning with BKN-OVC high cirrus
streaming into the region. MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop
around 15Z at DRT, after 21Z at SAT/SSF, and after 00Z at AUS.
Ceilings and visibility will gradually lower overnight into IFR to
LIFR criteria as low stratus, fog, and drizzle develop in areas. In
addition, isolated to scattered showers will be possible tonight.
SE winds are forecast to become established around 7-12KT after 15Z
then weaken after 00Z, and become variable around or less than 5KT
after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A southern stream shortwave aloft moving through Mexico this morning
will arrive into portions of South Texas this afternoon and tonight,
and link up with a northern stream shortwave trough late tonight
into Sunday morning. Cloud cover ahead of the feature will gradually
increase through the day. By this afternoon the moisture depth below
700mb, combined with weak forcing with the approach of the
shortwave, may allow for a few showers to develop across southern
areas of the CWA.

Isentropic ascent is forecast to steadily increase late this
evening, leading to lowering cloud bases and areas of drizzle and
fog developing through central and eastern areas of the CWA, in
addition to a chance of showers. The fog may expand into western
areas of the CWA overnight. Can`t rule out some areas of dense fog
developing overnight across the CWA.

As the trough passes east early Sunday morning low level flow will
veer west to northwest, allowing isentropic downglide to develop
and drier air to filter into the region. This should result in
clearing from northwest to southeast Sunday morning into early
afternoon. Despite the weak cold front passage, temperatures on
Sunday will be warmer than today. Highs today are forecast to be in
the 60s and on Sunday in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
With northerly winds and drier air settling in behind the front,
overnight lows dip back into the 40s. Monday will warm again with
highs in the low to mid 70s, still a good 10 degrees higher than
normal. Winds return out of the southeast on Monday and moistening
begins ahead of the next disturbance. As an upper trough moves
across North Texas, dragging another weak cold front with it, shower
and some isolated thunder across the area can be expected Tues. The
front passes through Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds follow behind the front and drier air filters in from
west to east, clearing skies by Tuesday evening. High temperatures
for Wednesday drop down closer to normal from the low to mid 60s. The
next approaching system progged for late next week could bring more
rain for Thursday and Friday. Inconsistent model runs paint very
different pictures for the progression of this disturbance. With low
confidence, kept a modest blend for late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  54  72  45  71 /  -   40  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  53  73  44  72 /  -   40  -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  54  73  45  72 /  10  50  -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  50  70  42  70 /  -   20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  49  75  47  77 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  51  70  43  69 /  -   30   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             66  53  77  45  76 /  20  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  54  73  44  72 /  10  50  -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  56  73  45  72 /  10  60  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  56  74  47  73 /  20  50  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  56  75  47  74 /  20  50  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Runyen
Long-Term...YB



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