Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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887
FXUS64 KEWX 230525 AAC
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
All convection has ended for the remainder of the overnight period.
VFR cigs will become MVFR in the 08Z-09Z period. KDRT could see MVFR
cigs spread west into the area for a few hours Friday morning, but
have not included for this forecast. Will see what later trends are
showing. VFR cigs return across the area between 12Z-15Z. Outside of
afternoon and evening convection VFR will prevail. S/SE winds 3 to 7
knots overnight and generally southeasterly 9-13 knots after 15Z.
KSSF/KSAT will see gusty SE winds after sunset to around 06Z Friday
evening. Another round of convection expected Friday afternoon and
into the evening as the result of day time heating and the sea
breeze. Currently looks like the convection may spread even further
west that what was seen on Thursday. With timing and actual areal
coverage in question will only include VCSH for SSF and SAT at this
time. Winds will be stronger and gusty in or near convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/

UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

AVIATION...
Isolated showers (and a couple thunderstorms) have developed this
late afternoon across portions of the region, with these slowly
moving to the northwest. With very little wind shear to work with,
these showers/storms will be short lived. Coverage is sparse enough
to handle with only VCSH at AUS/SAT/SSF. These showers should come to
an end with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and southeasterly winds will persist through the evening. MVFR CIGs
are expected to develop again at SAT/SSF by around 8z Friday morning.
A brief period or two of MVFR CIGs will be possible again at AUS on
Friday morning. VFR CIGs are expected to return by mid Friday
morning. Winds will become light and variable by early Friday morning
before returning to southeasterly around 7 to 8 knots by mid to late
Friday morning. At DRT, VFR conditions and southeasterly winds
around 10 knots are expected throughout the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/

UPDATE...
Isolated showers have developed further inland, now into portions of
the eastern Hill Country and I-35 corridor. Have updated to include a
mention of isolated showers through sunset near and east of a
Fredericksburg to Hondo to Pearsall line. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorms or two.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A few showers are lifting into the Coastal Plains this afternoon as
the sea breeze continues to push inland. Visible satellite imagery
shows much less vertical extent to the cumulus field than this time
yesterday as a weakness in the mid-level height field continues to
translate west of the region. While an isolated shower or two cannot
be ruled out east of Interstate 35 through the early evening hours,
expect much lower shower coverage than yesterday. Loss of daytime
heating will result in convection waning with another dry night
expected as nocturnal stratus redevelops and keeps overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an inverted trough lifting up
the eastern Mexico coast and as this feature reaches the northwest
Gulf on Friday, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop
along the sea breeze mid-morning through the afternoon. This,
combined with slightly more cloud cover as convective temperatures
are reached, should help moderate temperatures a few degrees on
Friday with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. Will have to watch
progress of an outflow boundary stretching from the Low Rolling
Plains of Texas to the Red River for any southward progress overnight
and during the day Friday as it may serve as a focus for
thunderstorm activity over parts of the Hill Country by Friday
evening. Regardless, forecast soundings from near San Angelo indicate
convective temperatures will easily be met tomorrow afternoon with
little to no capping in place and even if the boundary does not make
it south, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the western
Hill Country during to just after peak heating. Have added low (20
percent) rain chances to the western Hill Country to account for
this. Loss of heating will again make Friday night dry for the region
with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
With the disturbance lingering over the northwest Gulf on Saturday
and a shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains on Saturday and
Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be
possible across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and into the Coastal
Plains during peak heating. Highs in the mid 90s to near 100 this
weekend will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s on Monday as upper
ridging builds back across the region from the west. Monday appears
to be one of the hotter days in the forecast period and will need to
be monitored for potential Heat Advisories. Dry and hot conditions
are expected to persist through Thursday as ridging spreads farther
across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  99  77 100  78 /  10  20  10  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  10  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  75  97  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  99  78 103  78 /  10  10  10  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  76  98  77 /  10  20  10  20  -
Hondo Muni Airport             76  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  77  98  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           78  98  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...10
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt



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