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000
FXUS64 KEWX 141954
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
GOES satellite derived winds indicate an upper-level shortwave ridge
axis has shifted farther southeast across Texas this afternoon,
leaving the main axis of this feature stretching from near Eagle Pass
northeast towards northern Louisiana. With this weak, broad ridging
across the southeastern half of the state, attention for any kind of
rain chances shifts towards the ample heating occurring along a
dryline stretching from the Big Bend towards Amarillo. Visible
satellite imagery is beginning to show some convective development in
the vicinity of this surface boundary early this afternoon with a
few towering cumulus developing near Fort Stockton and west towards
the Davis Mountains. Higher resolution guidance remains consistent
in isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity growing upscale late
this afternoon as updrafts are able to take advantage of the
2500-3000 J/Kg of SBCAPE analyzed on SPC Mesoanalysis. East to
southeast winds within the mean cloud bearing layer may allow for
some of this activity to translate into Val Verde County by early
evening before weakening with loss of heating, but expect the bulk of
thunderstorm activity to again remain north of the region tonight.

A strengthening nocturnal low level jet in response to an
approaching shortwave trough now located over California will allow
for some lower stratus to build into the region overnight, resulting
in warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As the shortwave
trough reaches New Mexico on Saturday, associated forcing for ascent
will spread well north of the region across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and Low Rolling Plains. This should keep the bulk of
convection outside of the region again on Saturday. However, a deeper
wave of moisture located about 250 miles off the Middle Texas Coast
on GOES Total Precipitable Water satellite imagery this afternoon is
expected to push inland during the day Saturday. Forecast soundings
from near Victoria show convective temperatures only in the mid 80s
on Saturday and as this deeper moisture arrives, a few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm may be able to develop across the Coastal
Plains counties. Otherwise, another warm day is expected Saturday
with highs ranging from the mid 90s in Central Texas to near 100
across the Rio Grande Plains. Dry conditions are again expected to
persist into Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 70s under
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The shortwave trough reaches the Southern Plains during the day on
Sunday, leaving a fairly persistent weakness in the mid-level height
fields Sunday night through Wednesday. With the main disturbance
located well north of the region during this time, best rain chances
are expected to focus north of the region. The 12Z suite of model
guidance has begun to show some intermittent signals for thunderstorm
complexes to develop and approach Central Texas Sunday night and
again Monday night and have increased rain chances across portions of
Central Texas and the Coastal Plains where steering flow indicates
the most likely movement of these complexes, should they develop.
Shortwave ridging builds across the region on Wednesday behind the
departure of the Southern Plains disturbance, but quickly flattens
late next week as subsequent mid-level waves move across the
Southern and Central Plains. Despite this flat pattern, gradually
increasing heights will allow for high temperatures to continue to
climb into the mid 90s to low 100s by the end of the week with
Wednesday through Friday seeing heat index values in excess of 102
degrees for most areas southeast of the Balcones Escarpment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  94  76  92  75 /  10  -   -   30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  94  76  93  74 /  10  -   -   30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  74  92  74 /  10  -   -   20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  74  91  72 /  -   -   10  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  95  75  96  75 /  -   -   10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  95  75  93  73 /  -   -   -   30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  75  97  74 /  -   -   -   10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  75  94  74 /  10  -   -   20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  95  77  92  75 /  -   10  -   30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  95  75  94  74 /  10  -   10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  75  94  75 /  10  -   10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams