Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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146
FXUS64 KEWX 121650
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1150 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick morning update to introduce showers into the forecast for the
afternoon. These showers have formed from Kerrville to Lago Vista and
across areas east of I-35 and north of I-10. These showers are
forming in response to isentropic upglide evident on the 300K and
305K surfaces. As winds aloft push moisture up the pressure gradient
on the constant potential temperatures surface the parcel is able to
condensate and then find enough instability to produce these showers
streaming from SW to NE. These showers should continue into the early
afternoon hours. Surface winds are light out of the north with
temperatures as of noon are around 60 degrees.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will prevail at all airports through this period. Winds
will be from the north at 10 to 15 kts for the next few hours and
decrease during the late morning or early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Cold air advection has mostly ended behind yesterday`s cold frontal
passage. Saturated isentropic upglide on the 300K surface is a fair
proxy for the sprinkles seen on radar moving from west to east
across the northern tier of our area. With some additional light
ripples in fairly fast mid and upper level flow also approaching the
area from the west-southwest later, we expect sprinkles to be
possible across the same area throughout the day, and later extending
south into Val Verde County. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies
throughout today and into Sunday. Return flow will reach the surface
on Sunday, with temperatures returning to near normal in the upper
70s.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
The last gasps of the summer subtropical high seem to be set for
Monday and Tuesday, with a return to well above normal temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Diurnal heating and continued small
ripples in fast zonal flow are just enough to maintain low PoPs, but
most places will remain dry. That will change with continued column
moistening in deep southerly flow, then the approach of a trough and
cold front Wednesday and Thursday. We expect at least 30-40 PoPs, possibly
higher if the GFS turns out to be closer to reality than the ECMWF.
The stronger trough/front with the GFS implies higher PoPs and QPF.
However, that solution seems an outlier, and we will blend back
toward the ECMWF. The sensible result will be rainfall event totals
around one inch on the coastal plains, around 1/2 inch along I-35,
and 1/4 inch or less on the Rio Grande Plains. Surface high pressure
and shortwave ridging ahead of a major longwave trough should bring
mild and dry weather next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  53  78  66  88 /  20  -   -    0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  54  78  65  89 /  20  -   -    0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  55  79  66  89 /  20  -   -   -   20
Burnet Muni Airport            64  52  76  63  84 /  10  10  -   -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  56  84  65  91 /  10  10   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  53  76  63  86 /  10  10  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             72  56  83  67  92 /  20  -    0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  54  79  65  89 /  20  -   -   -   20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  55  80  68  89 /  20   0  -    0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  55  80  68  90 /  20   0  -   -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           70  56  80  68  91 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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