Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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302
FXUS64 KEWX 200001
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through this evening as winds remain
gusty at times for the I-35 sites. Wind speeds should then decrease
after midnight as some low clouds begin to develop. We will continue
to mention MVFR cigs at SAT and SSF, and have opted for a TEMPO
group at AUS for MVFR between 10-14Z. Low clouds may also impact DRT,
but for now we will only mention SCT clouds. We will need to monitor
the 12-16Z time frame for possible MVFR clouds at DRT. Improving
conditions are expected after 15Z as clouds lift and scatter back to
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Subtropical ridge remains over much of the Srn/SWrn US, but some
weakness on the periphery will push from the Gulf into South TX
tonight. The impact on our temps will be subtle, but we may see
showers and thunderstorms push a bit deeper inland for Tuesday as
suggested by some Convective Allowing Models. High temps over the
more populated I-35 Corridor areas should only see a 1 or 2 degree
improvement over the short-term, but most areas should see triple
digits for at least one more day.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The subtropical ridge axis remains anchored from the Sonoran desert
into the Red River valley of TX with mostly stable conditions holding
steady over South-Central TX through Thursday.

Deterministic models continue to indicate a mid-level weakness
moving north along the Wrn Gulf to possibly increase Coastal Prairie
activity on Friday. By this time, portions of the ridge may also be
weakened by a developing tropical cyclone over the Pacific which is
forecast to generally run parallel with the Pacific coastline of
Mexico/CA. This part of the forecast will show decreasing confidence
with time from Friday going forward through the rest of the 7-day
forecast, but there is a general trend for the ridging aloft to
weaken with a more prominent mid-level northerly flow in the mid-
levels developing over TX. For this time of year, given the amount
of moisture the atmosphere can hold, that is at least enough
justification to bring a more broad coverage of isolated PoPs into
the area for the weekend into next week. This could evolve into a
more unstable and cooler pattern, but will take a more conservative
approach and keep a couple degrees to the warm side of guidance max
temps early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 102  78 101  77 /   0  -    0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 100  76 100  75 /   0  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  75 100  74 /  -   10   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75 100  75  99  74 /   0  -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 100  77  99  76 /   0  -    0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             76 102  74 101  74 /   0   0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 100  75  99  75 /   0  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77 100  76  99  76 /   0  20   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  77 100  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 102  76 102  76 /   0  10   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...17
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams



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