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143
FXUS64 KEWX 172333 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
533 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are in store at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Only high clouds are expected through tomorrow as
winds along the I-35 corridor remain from the northeast. Similar
conditions out west at DRT with winds transitioning to a more
southeasterly direction by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The current upper air pattern is characterized by broad troughing across
the western CONUS and ridging across the eastern CONUS with
southwesterly flow aloft across South Central Texas. Drier air has
filtered in behind the cold frontal passage this morning. Low RH
values and some gusty winds have yielded some slightly elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon. The rest of today should be quite
pleasant with temperatures tonight dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s across the majority of the region.

Unfortunately, the brief period of mostly clear skies will be
squelched with the arrival of more cloud cover as we progress
through Monday afternoon due to the approach of another upper level
trough from the northwest. High temperatures tomorrow will be below
seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Weak
isentropic ascent will lead to slight chances for showers and drizzle
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Tuesday as the
trough axis approaches, with the Williamson and Lee County areas
being most favored for shower activity. Accumulated rainfall should
remain below a quarter of an inch. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
much cooler than seasonal normals.

Wednesday should generally remain dry as the upper level trough lifts
to the northeast, with only 20% PoPs across the Coastal Plains. There
should be some breaks in the clouds, allowing for partly sunny
conditions. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s.

Generally unsettled weather returns for Thursday through Saturday
due to the approach of another upper level trough from the northwest,
bringing mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. The GFS is more
bullish in terms of rain coverage and accumulated rainfall than the
ECMWF. For now, have mostly used a model blend for PoPs and QPF. Even
the more bullish GFS yields less than an inch of total accumulated
rainfall for all areas except for the northeastern counties of the
CWA. High temperatures during this time period will gradually warm,
with highs around 60 for Thursday and warming up to the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  58  43  49  42 /   0   0  30  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  40  59  43  50  42 /   0   0  30  50  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     40  60  44  53  42 /   0   0  30  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            38  53  39  47  38 /   0   0  30  60  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           45  63  49  63  45 /   0   0  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        39  54  40  46  39 /   0   0  30  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             42  63  46  58  43 /   0   0  20  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        40  60  43  52  42 /   0   0  30  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   40  61  46  52  44 /   0   0  40  60  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       42  61  45  55  44 /   0   0  20  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           42  62  46  56  45 /   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...05