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000
FXUS64 KEWX 202341
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/

Zonal flow aloft will maintain a fairly tight pressure gradient over
TX and lead to slightly stronger winds Sunday over those of today.
Gulf moisture return is underway, but the dry dewpoints still along
the coast indicate a possible delay in the clouds until just before
daybreak. With some wind decoupling expected, there could be a few
pockets of ifr cigs forming around daybreak, but expect the more
common cloud heights over the I-35 corridor to be above 1000 ft.
Moisture should initially be shallow, so will show a fast mixout back
to vfr before noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Nice breeze from the south continues through the period as a low
level jet increases mainly overnight into midday Sunday. Increased
low level moisture is forecast to bring low clouds overnight into
Sunday morning, however, clouds will scattered out once mixing takes
place for mostly sunny skies across most of south central Texas for
the afternoon hours. Southerly flow of 15 to 20 MPH are forecast
along and east of I-35 with gusts up to 30 MPH mainly in the
afternoon. Overnight lows will be ranging from the upper 50s to lower
60s with Sunday`s high temperatures forecast to be around the mid
80s most places and lower 90s along the Rio Grande.

Moisture will continue to increase Sunday evening into Monday with
cloudy skies anticipated to begin the work week.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Due to cloud coverage across the area on Monday, highs are forecast
to stay in the upper 70s over the Hill Country and lower 80s along
the I-35 and I-37 corridors.

Next chance for rain comes on Tuesday as an upper level system pushes
down across the four corners region. This system is forecast to moves
across the Southern Plains between Wednesday and Thursday and brings
greater chances for rain across south central Texas from Tuesday
night through Thursday morning.

There is a threat for severe weather on Wednesday as a cold front
moves across the area and the upper level system pushes over central
Texas. As this event unfolds, the severe weather threat (large
hail=>one inch in diameter and thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 MPH) is
forecast to shift to a heavy rain threat Wednesday evening.

The GFS is the slower of the ECMWF and Canadian model solutions. This
forecast package shows a faster solution/progression system very
similar to the previous forecast. Storm rainfall totals could range
from 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3 inches mainly between Highway 281
and I-35 corridor with less amounts elsewhere.

Once the front moves out of the area and the upper level system moves
to east Texas on Thursday, dry weather conditions are anticipated
for the rest of the week into the first part of next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  84  64  82  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  84  62  82  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  84  62  82  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            58  83  62  79  65 /   0   0   0  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  89  65  84  67 /   0   0   0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  84  62  81  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             58  89  62  85  66 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  84  62  82  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  84  63  82  66 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  85  64  82  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           60  85  64  82  67 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...04
Public Service/Data Collection...33