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438
FXUS64 KEWX 210549
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs will develop overnight around 08Z and then mix out by mid
morning around 14Z at KSAT/KSSF. MVFR level clouds will also develop
overnight at KAUS, however, a southwesterly component to the lower
level flow will keep them mainly SCT. There is a potential for brief
MVFR CIGs early in the morning and will monitor for possible updates
to mention at KAUS. Lower level moisture progs have also indicated
SCT MVFR level clouds at KDRT early in the morning and introduced
mention there. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions will prevail. MVFR
CIGs are again expected at KSAT/KSSF Wednesday night and possibly at
KAUS. At the I-35 sites, southeasterly winds 5 to 10 KTs veer to
southerly at 4 to 9 KTs overnight, back to southeasterly Wednesday
afternoon, then increase to 9 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 22 KTs
with passage of the seabreeze Wednesday evening. At KDRT, easterly
winds 5 to 10 KTs overnight, veer to southeasterly at 10 to 15 KTs
with a few gusts to 22 KTs on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Partly cloudy skies prevail for most of the area at this time with
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Overall, temperatures are
about a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday with some sites
unchanged. Scattered showers and storms will continue across the
Coastal Plains this afternoon aided by a weak inverted coastal
trough. There is a small chance that some of these could sneak
closer to the I35 corridor by late this afternoon. For tonight,
another dry night with lows in the middle to upper 70s can be
expected for most of the area. For tomorrow, the ridge is expected to
continue to break down which should allow high temperatures to be
another degree or two cooler than today. The inverted trough axis
will be west of the region and the overall coverage of showers and
storms will be less as a result.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Expect continued low chances of showers and storms on Thursday and
Friday mainly east of I35 in the afternoons. Highs will continue to
be in the upper 90s to 102 degrees with the warmer temperatures
closer to the Rio Grande. Medium range models then diverge with their
solutions beginning on Saturday which will then have subsequent
impacts on the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS/ECMWF both
develop a weak low across northern Mexico on Saturday but the GFS is
much stronger and moves it east as it gets picked up in the longwave
trough axis moving across the Central Plains. If the GFS were to
verify, Saturday afternoon and evening could be wet in the west with
the rest of the area seeing decent chances of rain on Sunday.
However, the ECMWF keeps this system much weaker and does not show it
getting picked up in the eastward moving trough. Therefore its
forecast for the weekend and beyond is much drier than that of the
GFS. Because the development and movement of this low is highly
dependent on several factors, will lean closer to the drier ECMWF for
now and only forecast 20/30 PoPs. This system will also have an
impact on the temperature forecast as well. Will continue with low
PoPs through Tuesday with the possible increased moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77  98  78 /   0   0  -   10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  98  75  97  76 /   0   0  -   10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  74  97  76 /   0  -   -   10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 101  77 102  78 /   0   0  10  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             74 101  74 101  75 /   0   0  10  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  98  75  98  75 /   0  -   -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  98  77  98  76 /   0  20  -   20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  77  98  77 /   0  -   10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  98  77  98  78 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway