


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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587 FXUS64 KEWX 130603 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A dangerous risk with potential of high impact flash flooding is forecast for later tonight into Sunday - Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of tonight into Sunday morning for parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country; a Level 2 of 4 risk along the I-35 corridor and/or near the Rio Grande - Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated 9 to 12 inches possible across the Flood Watch area through Sunday evening - Rapid river rises are anticipated with this dangerous flash flooding event && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A dangerous risk with the potential of high impact flash flooding event is unfolding late tonight into Sunday. Various meteorological features are forecast to come together to create heavy rain rates (2 to 4 inches/hr) leading to flash flooding and rapid river rises. The complex of storms is likely to slowly push to the southeast from the San Angelo area as abundant Gulf moisture feeds into the convergence zone (line of storms). This is a dangerous situation since we already had a significant heavy rain event last week with soils near to saturation or at saturation levels. Runoff will take over quickly making rivers to rise to dangerous levels in addition to flash flooding across poor drainage and low-lying areas and low water crossing. Hires models are in good agreement with tonight`s heavy rainfall event and therefore, our confidence is medium to high as far as occurrence and locations. With that said, higher rainfall amounts are expected through the Flood Watch period with 2 to 4 inches and isolated 9 to 12 inches possible. There is a good chance that the Flood Watch gets extended and expanded on Sunday with new data suggesting for heavy rain to continue Sunday evening into Monday morning as a mesoscale convective vortex lingers around the Hill Country. For now, we are concentrating for the late tonight into Sunday morning period. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 For the extended forecast period, relatively dry and warm conditions are expected mid to late week with high temperatures at seasonal values for most of the work week and reaching the mid to upper 90s by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 MVFR cigs return overnight across the local area terminals and stay through mid morning on Sunday. We are expected heavy rain overnight into Sunday morning across the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande. At this time, this activity should stay to the north and northwest of the airports. By mid to late Sunday morning into the afternoon period, rain chances and thunderstorm probabilities increase for the I-35 sites and KDRT. Stronger storms could produce heavy downpours and reduced visibilities. A southeast to south wind flow is forecast to dominate during this forecast cycle with speeds around 6 to 12 knots and gusts up to 22 knots . && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 74 93 75 / 60 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 73 94 74 / 40 20 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 88 72 90 73 / 70 30 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 76 95 77 / 30 40 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 73 92 74 / 60 30 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 93 73 93 75 / 30 30 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 93 74 / 50 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 75 93 76 / 30 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 95 75 95 76 / 30 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet- Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real- Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...17 Aviation...17